引入林分结构与土壤养分提高大兴安岭火烧迹地白桦幼树树高−胸径模型精度

Incorporating stand structure and soil nutrients to improve the accuracy of height-diameter model of naturally regenerated Betula platyphylla saplings under forest fire disturbance in the Greater Khingan Range

摘要

【目的】为揭示林火干扰对大兴安岭地区天然更新白桦幼树树高−胸径关系的影响，通过模型构建并引入林分结构和土壤养分特征提高其多因素模拟精度，为该地区火后森林经营管理提供理论支撑。【方法】以大兴安岭塔河林业局盘古林场为研究区，在 1996、2010、2019 年重度火干扰迹地及非火干扰区设置固定样地 24 块，调查白桦幼树（胸径 < 5 cm）1 465 株。采用调整决定系数（ R²_a）、平均绝对误差（MAE）和均方根误差（RMSE）筛选最优基础模型；以火干扰状态为哑变量，通过再参数化将林分及土壤因子引入基础模型，构建广义非线性模型；进一步纳入样地水平随机效应，构建非线性混合效应模型。针对火干扰区与非火干扰区样本量不均衡问题，采用分层抽样策略进行 3 折交叉验证，确保各折中两类样地比例与总体一致，以评估模型泛化能力。【结果】（1）Gompertz 模型为白桦幼树树高−胸径的最优基础模型，其R²_a、RMSE 和 MAE 分别为 0.683 9、1.03 m 和 0.78 m；（2）引入火干扰、树种香农多样性指数和土壤全磷的广义非线性模型显著提升了预测精度， R²_a提升约 4.1%，RMSE 和 MAE 分别降低约 4.9% 和 6.4%；（3）进一步考虑样地异质性后，混合效应模型的R²_a提升至 0.730 6，RMSE 和 MAE 分别降为 0.95 m 和 0.71 m；（4）树种香农多样性指数和土壤全磷均与幼树高生长呈负相关，但火干扰显著削弱了二者的抑制效应；当胸径为 5 cm 时，火干扰区预测树高（6.44 m）较非火干扰区（6.15 m）高 4.7%。【结论】研究表明火干扰通过缓解林分竞争和土壤磷养分约束限制，间接促进了白桦幼树生长。本研究构建的混合效应模型有效捕获了样地水平的异质性，为火干扰后天然林更新预测提供了可靠工具。

Abstract

[Objective] To reveal the effects of forest fire disturbance on the height-diameter relationship of naturally regeneratedBetula platyphylla saplings in the Greater Khingan Mountains region, this study improved the accuracy of multi-factor simulation by constructing models and incorporating stand structure and soil nutrient characteristics, so as to provide theoretical support for post-fire forest management in this area. [Method] A total of 1 465Betula platyphylla saplings were surveyed across 24 permanent plots in Panggu Forest Farm, Tahe Forestry Bureau, Greater Khingan Mountains, covering areas burned in 1996, 2010, and 2019 as well as unburned controls. The adjusted coefficient of determination (R²_a), mean absolute error (MAE), and root mean square error (RMSE) were used to select the optimal height-diameter basic model. A dummy variable representing fire disturbance status was then incorporated, and stand and soil factors were introduced into the base model via reparameterization to construct a generalized nonlinear model. To address the imbalance in sample sizes between burned and unburned plots, a stratified sampling strategy was adopted for 3-fold cross-validation to ensure consistent proportions of plot types across folds, thereby evaluating model generalization. [Result] (1) The Gompertz model was identified as the optimal base model withR²_a, RMSE, and MAE of 0.683 9, 1.03 m, and 0.78 m, respectively. (2) The generalized nonlinear model incorporating fire disturbance, Shannon diversity index of tree species, and soil total phosphorus significantly improved prediction accuracy, increasingR²_a by approximately 4.1%, and reducing RMSE and MAE by approximately 4.9% and 6.4%, respectively. (3) The nonlinear mixed-effects model further improved R²_a to 0.730 6, with RMSE and MAE decreasing to 0.95 m and 0.71 m, respectively. (4) Both the Shannon diversity index and soil total phosphorus were negatively correlated with sapling height growth. However, fire disturbance significantly attenuated their inhibitory effects. For saplings with a DBH of 5 cm, predicted height in burned areas (6.44 m) was 4.7% higher than that in unburned areas (6.15 m). [Conclusion] Our findings indicate that fire disturbance promotesBetula platyphylla sapling height growth by alleviating stand competition and soil phosphorus limitation. The mixed-effects model developed in this study effectively captured plot-level heterogeneity, providing a reliable tool for predicting natural regeneration following fire disturbance.

关键词

林火干扰 / 白桦幼树 / 哑变量 / 混合效应 / 树高 / 胸径 / 土壤养分

Key words

forest fire disturbance / Betula platyphylla saplings / dummy variable / mixed effect / tree height / diameter / soil nutrients

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基金资助

国家重点研发计划(2023YFF1304002)