北美页岩油气革命及启示:Bakken页岩油气藏大数据实例分析
于荣泽 , 邹才能 , 赵群 , 张晓伟 , 陈艳鹏 , 董大忠 , 赵素平 , 孙钦平 , 王欣
地球科学 ›› 2026, Vol. 51 ›› Issue (7) : 2838 -2853.
北美页岩油气革命及启示:Bakken页岩油气藏大数据实例分析
Shale Revolution in North America and Its Implications: A Data⁃Drive Analysis of Bakken Shale Play
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依托近2.6万口水平井全生命周期大数据,采用数理统计、随机森林与Pareto多目标优化方法,揭示了Bakken页岩油气藏工程技术与开发效益的协同演化规律.研究表明,通过工程参数的持续迭代,水平段长由2 072 m延伸至 3 553 m,加砂强度由0.29 t/m提升至1.54 t/m,钻井周期压缩至50 d,驱动单井EUR倍增至10.6×10⁴ t,同时单位油当量钻压成本由89美元/t降至45美元/t,形成了显著的“产量上升、成本下降”效益剪刀差.基于大数据规律,首次建立了“垂深‒水垂比”与“垂深‒水平段长‒加砂强度”三维协同优化图版,量化了深层高脆性页岩油开发的参数适配区间.该研究为我国陆相页岩油破解开发瓶颈、实现从“经验驱动”向“数智驱动”转型提供了可量化的技术范式.
Based on full-lifecycle big data from nearly 26 000 horizontal wells, and using mathematical statistics, random forest, and Pareto multi-objective optimization, this study reveals the synergistic evolution between engineering technologies and development performance in the Bakken shale play. Continuous iteration of engineering parameters extended the lateral length from 2 072 m to 3 553 m, increased proppant intensity from 0.29 t/m to 1.54 t/m, and reduced the drilling cycle to 50 d. As a result, the estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) per well doubled to 10.6×10⁴t, while the drilling and fracturing cost per unit oil equivalent dropped from 89 USD/t to 45 USD/t, creating a significant “rising production, falling cost” beneficial scissors gap. Based on big‑data patterns, we establish for the first time a “true vertical depth vs. water‑to‑vertical ratio” chart and a “true vertical depth vs. lateral length vs. proppant intensity” three‑dimensional collaborative optimization chart, quantifying parameter adaptation intervals for deep, high‑brittleness shale oil development. This study provides a quantifiable technical paradigm for China’s continental shale oil to overcome development bottlenecks and transition from an experience‑driven to a digital intelligence‑driven approach.
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中国石油天然气股份有限公司重大科技专项(2023ZZ08)
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