基于改进MＧ曲线的中国乡村中等收入群体规模测算研究

A Study on Measuring the Scale of Middle-Income Groups in Rural China Based on Improved M-Curve

摘要

中国乡村老龄化、收入单一化影响乡村居民收入水平的同时也对测度中等收入群体规模的方法带来了冲击.在考虑老龄化、收入单一化条件下改进测算中等收入群体规模的标准化MＧ曲线法,并利用中国家庭动态跟踪调查数据验证测算中国乡村中等收入群体规模.研究发现:相比未改进的标准化MＧ曲线法测算的中国乡村中等收入群体规模而言,无论是取相对收入界限75%~125%的标准,还是取67%~200%的标准,改进后的标准化MＧ曲线法测算的中国乡村中等收入群体规模均明显缩小,2020年乡村老龄化导致乡村中等收入群体规模最小缩小16.6个百分点,而单一的农业经营性收入使乡村中等收入群体规模最小缩小12.89个百分点.研究表明,标准化MＧ曲线测算方法夸大了乡村中等收入群体规模,而改进后的测算结果更符合中国乡村实际发展状况.

Abstract

The scale of the rural middle-income group is related to the changes in the social structure of rural China, while aging and income homogenization in rural China affect the income level of rural residents and bring impacts on the method of measuring the scale of the middle-income group. The normalized M curve method for measuring the scale of the middle-income group is improved under the conditions of aging and income homogenization, and is validated to measure the scale of the middle-income group in rural area of China by using data from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS). The study finds that, compared with the scale of the rural middle-income group in China measured by the unimproved normalized M curve method, the scale of the rural middle-income group in China measured by the improved normalized M curve method is significantly smaller, whether using the relative income threshold of 75%~125% or the relative income threshold of 67%~200%; the scale of the rural middle-income group in 2020 is reduced by at least 16.6 percentage points by the aging of the rural population, and by at least 12.89 percentage points by the single farm income. The normalized M curve method exaggerates the scale of the rural middle-income group, and the improved results are more in line with the actual development of the Chinese rural area.

关键词

人口老龄化 / 农业收入单一化 / 中等收入群体 / 核密度估计法 / 标准化MＧ曲线

Key words

population aging / homogenization of agricultural incomes / middle-income group / kernel density estimation method / normalized M-curve

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基金资助

国家社科基金项目(22BTJ042)