基于MERS模型的高校学生超重和肥胖触发年龄的统计分析

Statistical Analysis of Trigger Ages of Overweight and Obesity Among College Students Based on MERS Model

摘要

BMI(体质指数)是衡量身体超重和肥胖的重要指标,青少年BMI随年龄演变的规律是对青少年进行肥胖干预的重要依据.研究高校学生BMI随年龄变化而变化的特征,构建出高校学生BMI-年龄曲线,在此基础上,对高校学生超重和肥胖触发年龄进行统计分析.针对已有“分位数回归方法”的不足,根据回归样条线混合效应模型(MERS模型),利用AIC指标选择合适的结点数和平滑参数,通过数据分析得出中学和大学是预防学生超重和肥胖的关键时期.

Abstract

BMI(Body Mass Index) is an important index to measure overweight and obesity. The evolution of BMI with age is an important basis for obesity intervention in adolescents. The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between BMI and age, and to estimate the trigger age of overweight and obesity. In order to overcome the shortcomings of the existing "Quantile regression method", the authors use AIC index to select suitable node number and smoothing parameters according to the mixed effect regression splines model (MERS model). The following conclusions have been obtained: (1) the estimation of population mean function and the derivative of population mean function has been obtained, and the age of 13.7 years is estimated to be the fastest growing age of BMI; (2) the individual function of obese and overweight individuals is estimated, and the average trigger ages of obese and overweight individuals are 21.17 and 20.41 years respectively; (3) the most of overweight and obese individuals are found to be triggered between the ages of 15 and 25, so high school and college are critical periods for preventing overweight and obesity in students, especially college students are in the most critical periods for preventing overweight and obesity.

关键词

BMI / MERS模型 / 超重 / 肥胖 / 触发年龄

Key words

BMI / MERS model / overweight / obesity / trigger age

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基金资助

教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目(17YJA790098)

教育部高校思想政治工作创新发展中心2022年度专项研究课题(WHGDHSZZX2022079)