城市轨道交通限流条件下异质乘客出行时间选择行为研究

Research on the Travel Time Selection Behavior of Heterogeneous Passengers Under the Flow Restriction Conditions of Urban Rail Transit

摘要

在城市轨道交通早高峰常态大客流时段，站内拥挤现象普遍，管理者通常采取车站限流策略，导致乘客出行行为表现出明显的偏好异质性。为深入探究早高峰时段不同乘客群体的出行时间选择行为及其限流策略的作用机制，综合考虑个人属性、出行特性和态度偏好，设计了一份针对不同计划出行时间和通勤时长的乘客出行时间选择意愿调查问卷。基于上海地铁的问卷调查结果，选取年龄、期望到达时间弹性和拥挤度敏感性作为反映乘客异质性的关键特性变量，构建了乘客出行时间选择的多项Logit模型和考虑乘客异质性的混合Logit模型。运用Biogeme软件对模型参数进行标定，研究结果显示：在所有特性变量中，旅行耗时对乘客出行时间选择的影响最为显著；当计划出行时间接近限流开始或结束时间，且通勤时长较长时，乘客规避限流的意愿更强烈；个体异质性分析表明，具有灵活期望到达时间弹性的乘客更倾向于调整出行时间以避开限流或列车拥挤，而拥挤度敏感性较高和年龄较小的乘客则更关注排队候车人数。

Abstract

During the regular heavy passenger flow periods in the morning peak of urban rail transit, stations become crowded, prompting managers to commonly adopt station flow restriction strategies, resulting in distinct preferences and heterogeneity in passenger travel behavior. To gain a deeper understanding of the travel time choice behavior of different passenger groups during the morning rush hour and the mechanism of flow restriction strategies, this paper considers individual attributes, travel characteristics, and attitudinal preferences. It designs a questionnaire on passengers’ willingness to choose travel times, taking into account different planned travel times and commuting durations as scenarios. Based on the questionnaire survey results of Shanghai Metro, age, passenger expected arrival time elasticity, and congestion sensitivity were selected as characteristic variables reflecting passenger heterogeneity. Subsequently, a multinomial logit model for passenger travel time selection and a mixed logit model considering passenger heterogeneity were constructed. The model parameters are estimated using Biogeme software. The results indicate that, among all characteristic variables, travel duration has the most significant impact on passengers’ travel time choices. Passengers are more inclined to avoid flow restriction when their planned departure times are closer to the start or end of flow restriction periods and when their commuting durations are longer. The analysis of individual heterogeneity reveals that passengers with flexible arrival times are more willing to adjust their travel times to avoid flow restriction or train congestion. Passengers with higher congestion sensitivity and younger passengers pay more attention to the number of people waiting in line.

关键词

城市轨道交通 / 出行时间选择行为 / 异质性 / 限流策略

Key words

urban rail transit / travel time selection behavior / heterogeneity / passenger flow restriction strategy

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基金资助

上海市哲学社会科学规划课题(2022EGL003)