基于21世纪以来我国作物产量、人口与政策分析未来秸秆还田的必然性
窦婉毓 , 颜双双 , 孙仁华 , 王海洋 , 孙元丰 , 吕晓晨 , 闫超 , 宋秋来 , 马春梅 , 龚振平
中国农业大学学报 ›› 2025, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (12) : 291 -305.
基于21世纪以来我国作物产量、人口与政策分析未来秸秆还田的必然性
Inevitability of straw-returning to the field in the future: An analysis based on crop yield, population, and policy in China since the 21st century
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为明确粮食与秸秆产量变化规律,梳理秸秆还田政策与技术演进,剖析农村人口结构影响,探究其关键作用、必然性及科学实施策略。基于我国国家统计局、农业农村部关于秸秆还田的政策文件等统计数据,利用文献分析和数据统计的研究方法,对秸秆还田在农业生产中的关键作用、秸秆还田的必然性以及秸秆还田的实践得失与科学还田策略进行了分析。结果表明:1)21世纪以来我国粮食产量呈阶段性增长,秸秆产量从2000年的58 929.54万t增至2023年的87 674.28万t;2)21世纪以来秸秆还田政策从引导性逐步转向强制性,技术从传统人工模式向机械化、智能化、多元化方向演进,政策与技术的协同使秸秆综合利用率在2021年达88.1%;3)农村人口从78 384万人降至46 478万人,农业人口老龄化严重,导致秸秆还田劳动力供给不足;4)秸秆还田在改善土壤结构、提升土壤肥力、增加有机质含量、减少农田面源污染、增强作物抗逆性及降低化肥使用成本等方面发挥关键作用;5)未来我国农产品产量和质量将进一步提升,秸秆产生量和剩余量的增加将倒逼综合利用产业发展,受秸秆综合利用成本“半径15公里”限制原则,大量剩余秸秆将较难被再利用,直接还田将是解决秸秆剩余的可行方法;6)秸秆还田实践存在技术不适宜、配套措施不足等问题,需基于区域、作物和土壤条件制定科学策略。综上,政策制定应立足我国粮食安全长期战略需求,结合粮食增产引发的秸秆剩余、农村人口结构变化导致的秸秆处理方式的改变,以及秸秆还田相关政策的引导,秸秆科学还田既是解决秸秆剩余难题的可行方案,也可为农业绿色可持续发展提供参考。
This study aimed to clarify the change patterns of grain and straw yield, sort out the evolution of straw return to the field policies and technologies, analyze the impacts of rural population structure changes, and explore the critical role, inevitability, and scientific implementation strategies of straw-returning to the field. Based on statistical data including policy documents on straw return to the field from the National Bureau of Statistics and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of the People’s Republic of China, this study analyzes on the pivotal function of straw return to the field in agricultural production, the inevitability of its promotion, and the practical gains and losses in straw return to the field practices and corresponding scientific strategies. Literature analysis and data statistical methods are adopted. The findings revealed that: 1) Since the beginning of 21st century, China’s grain production has increased in distinct phases, and the straw production increased from 589.295 4 million tons in 2000 to 876.742 8 million tons in 2023. 2) Since the 21st century, the policies related to straw return to the field have shifted from advisory to mandatory, and technologies have evolved from traditional manual methods toward mechanization, intelligence, and diversification. The synergy between policies and technologies has raised the comprehensive utilization rate of straw to 88.1% in 2021. 3) The rural population has declined from 783.84 million to 464.78 million, leading to severe aging of the agricultural workforce and insufficient labor supply for straw return to the field. 4) Straw return to the field plays a pivotal role in improving soil structure, enhancing soil fertility, increasing organic matter content, reducing farmland non-point source pollution, boosting crop stress resistance, and lowering fertilizer usage costs. 5) Future increases in China’s agricultural output and quality will further drive the rise in straw production and surplus, compelling the development of comprehensive utilization industries. Due to the “15-kilometer radius” cost limitation principle for straw utilization, large amounts of surplus straw will be difficult to reuse, making direct straw return to the field a feasible solution to address surplus straw. 6) Practical straw return to the field efforts face issues such as technological unsuitability and inadequate supporting measures, necessitating region-specific, crop- and soil-condition-based scientific strategies. In conclusion, policy formation should be grounded in the long-term strategic needs of China’s food security, combines with the surplus straw resulting from increased grain production, accommodates changes in rural population structure affecting straw handling methods, and aligns with the guidance of relevant straw return to the field policies, scientific straw return to the field serves as both a viable solution to the surplus straw challenge and a reference for green and sustainable agriculture.
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国家重点研发计划(2022YFD1500800)
黑龙江省优秀青年教师基础研究支持计划项目(YQJH2023197)
黑龙江省自然科学基金项目(YQ2022C031)
东北农业大学学术骨干项目(20XG01)
黑龙江省农业科技创新跨越工程农业科技基础创新杰青项目(CX23JQ01)
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