基于ISM和SEM模型的吉林省农户土地规模经营风险与防范对策

Land scale management risks and prevention strategies of farmers in Jilin Province based on ISM and SEM models

摘要

揭示农地规模经营风险形成机理以及风险间关系,以便为农地规模经营风险防范和治理提供依据.通过问卷调查,采用解释结构模型(ISM)和结构方程模型(SEM)对吉林省农地规模经营风险及其形成机理定量评价和分析.解释结构模型(ISM)结果表明,农户土地规模经营各风险之间以层级的形式相互作用,随着层级的升高,危险等级也不断升高,自然风险F₁、市场风险F₂及技术风险F₃是土地规模经营中所面临的最基本的风险;结构方程模型(SEM)结果表明,各风险因素之间存在联系,不同风险事件对风险因素的影响不同,水旱灾害事件S₃、农产品市场信息不对称的风险事件S₁₂、农民技能培训不到位的风险事件S₁₅、农户社会保障不到位的风险事件S₂₃等分别对自然风险F₁、市场风险F₂、技术风险F₃影响较大.对此,提出了吉林省农户土地规模经营风险防范建议:加强配套设施建设,建立长效风险预警系统;加强农产品市场监管,拓宽销售渠道;注重农业人才引进,加强农业技术创新与应用;完善社会保障,防范社会风险;充分发挥政府职能,积极宣传土地规模经营政策;加强规模经营者风险意识,提高抵御风险能力等.

Abstract

The mechanism of risk formation and the relationship between risks in agricultural land scale management were revealed in order to provide a basis for risk prevention and governance in agricultural land scale management. Through a questionnaire survey, the Interpretative Structural Model (ISM) and Structural Equation Model (SEM) were adopted to quantitatively evaluate and analyze the risks and formation mechanisms of agricultural land scale management in Jilin Province. The Interpretative Structural Model (ISM) results indicate that the various risks of land scale management among farmers interact in a hierarchical form, as the level increases, the risk level also increases continuously. Natural risk F₁, market risk F₂ and technical risk F₃ are the most basic risks faced in land scale management. The results of Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) indicate that there is a connection between various risk factors, and different risk events have different impacts on risk factors. The risk events S₃ of water and drought disasters, S₁₂ of information asymmetry in agricultural product markets, S₁₅ of inadequate skill training for farmers, and S₂₃ of inadequate social security for farmers have a significant impact on natural risk F₁, market risk F₂, and technical risk F₃, respectively. In this regard, some suggestions on farmers' land scale management risk preventions in JiLin province were proposed to strengthen the construction of supporting facilities and establish a long-term risk warning system; to strengthen market supervision of agricultural products and expand sales channels; to pay attention to the introduction of agricultural talents and strengthen agricultural technology innovation and application; to improve social security and prevent social risks; to fully exert government functions and actively promote land scale management policies; to strengthen risk awareness of scale operators and improve the ability to resist risks.

关键词

农地规模经营 / 风险防范 / 解释结构模型 / 结构方程模型

Key words

scale management of agricultural land / risk prevention / Interpretative Structural Model / Structural Equation Model

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基金资助

2024年四平市哲学社会科学规划项目(SPSK24138)

2024年四平市哲学社会科学规划项目(SPSK24044)