辽宁省粮食主产区耕地生态安全评价与分析

Evaluation and analysis of cultivated land ecological security in major grain producing areas of Liaoning province

摘要

为了正确评价辽宁省粮食主产区近年来的耕地生态安全发展情况,以铁岭市为例对耕地生态安全的阻碍因素和相关政策进行了全面分析.利用障碍度诊断模型对影响耕地生态安全的各项因素的障碍程度进行综合排序.应用灰色预测模型对研究期内的耕地生态安全度进行了拟合,并对未来三年的安全度给出预测结果.障碍因素综合排序为:S₂ 粮食播种面积、P₁ 土地生产力、S₁ 粮食单产.利用灰色预测模型预测铁岭市未来的耕地生态安全发展形势良好.综合分析结果,从提高农业现代化水平、增强农业基础设施、增加农民收入3个方面提出了针对性的建议措施.

Abstract

In order to correctly evaluate the development of cultivated land ecological security in the major grain producing areas of Liaoning province in recent years, taking Tieling city as an example, a comprehensive analysis was conducted on the obstacles and related policies of farmland ecological security. An obstacle degree diagnostic model was adopted to comprehensively rank the degree of obstacles of various factors that affect the ecological security of cultivated land. The grey prediction model was applied to fit the ecological security of cultivated land during the research period, and the prediction results of the security in the next three years were given. The comprehensive ranking of obstacle factors is: S₂ grain sown area, P₁ land productivity, S₁ grain yield per unit area. Using the grey prediction model predicts that the future development of farmland ecological security in Tieling will be good. Based on the comprehensive analysis results, targeted suggestions and measures are proposed from three aspects: improving the level of agricultural modernization, enhancing agricultural infrastructure and increasing farmers' income.

关键词

耕地 / 生态安全 / 障碍度 / 预测 / 铁岭市

Key words

cultivated land / ecological security / obstacle level / prediction / Tieling city

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基金资助

辽宁省社会科学规划基金项目(L23BGL011)