融合恐慌情绪与环境熟悉度的地铁站应急疏散仿真模型研究

李艳; 周佳嘉; 刘雅; 王付宇

doi:10.12415/j.issn.1671−7872.25104

安徽工业大学学报（自然科学版） ›› 2026, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (4) : 445 -453. DOI: 10.12415/j.issn.1671−7872.25104

系统与管理科学

融合恐慌情绪与环境熟悉度的地铁站应急疏散仿真模型研究

李艳 ^a^,^b ,
周佳嘉 ^a ,
刘雅 ^a ,
王付宇 ^a

作者信息 +

^a 安徽工业大学管理科学与工程学院，安徽马鞍山 243032

^b 安徽工业大学复杂系统多学科管理与控制安徽普通高校重点实验室，安徽马鞍山 243032

通讯作者:

王付宇(1977—)，河南泌阳人，博士，教授，博士生导师，主要研究方向为应急管理、智能算法。
王付宇管理学博士，教授，博士生导师。安徽工业大学管理科学与工程学院院长，安徽省优秀研究生导师团队 (应急决策与优化调度) 负责人，省级科研创新培育团队 (运筹优化与智能决策) 负责人。入选安徽省高层次人才计划项目“领军人才”、安徽工业大学青年拔尖人才“青年学者”，获宝钢优秀教师奖、安徽省教学名师等称号。兼任中国仿真学会智能仿真优化与调度专委会常务委员、安徽省管理学学会常务理事、安徽省减灾救灾专家委员会委员。先后主持国家自然科学基金面上项目 2 项及教育部人文社科项目等课题 30 余项；在《管理科学学报》《中国管理科学》和Reliability Engineering & System Safety 等期刊发表学术论文 80 余篇；获安徽省社会科学奖二等奖、安徽省教学成果奖一等奖、中国仿真学会教学成果特等奖等省级以上科研与教学奖励 10 余项；主编出版专著、教材等 5 部；授权专利 5 项；相关智库成果被中国科协、安徽省社科联等部门采纳 10 余项，并获省、市主要领导肯定性批示。

作者简介:

李艳 (1984—)，安徽亳州人，博士，副教授，主要研究方向为家庭护理人员调度、智能算法。

收起

Simulation Study on Emergency Evacuation in Subway Stations Considering Panic Psychology and Environment Familiarity

Yan LI ^a^,^b ,
Jiajia ZHOU ^a ,
Ya LIU ^a ,
Fuyu WANG ^a

Author information +

文章历史 +

PDF (2730K)

摘要

针对传统行人疏散模型在刻画个体行为差异及群体情绪传播机制方面的不足，以地铁站突发公共安全事件为背景，研究行人应急疏散效率。在元胞自动机模型的基础上，引入环境熟悉度以反映行人疏散行为的个体差异，并加入扶梯速度因子以增强模型对实际场景的适用性；同时，结合 SIR(susceptible-infective-removed) 传染病模型模拟恐慌情绪在人群中的动态传播过程，构建融合环境熟悉度与恐慌情绪影响的疏散仿真模型。以南京市 A 地铁站站台为例进行仿真，分析上述两类因素各自的作用机制及其交互效应对整体疏散过程的影响。结果表明：恐慌情绪的扩散会显著延缓疏散进程，使总疏散时间增加约 35%；环境熟悉度对疏散效率具有显著正向影响，熟悉度较高的个体疏散时间平均可降低 15%~40%；此外，随着恐慌阈值的提高，疏散时间总体呈下降趋势，并在达到某一临界值后趋于稳定。本研究通过集成认知熟悉度与心理情绪因素，弥补了传统模型对个体行为异质性刻画不足的缺陷，为地铁站应急疏散方案的精细化制定提供理论参考依据。

Abstract

Aiming at the shortcomings of traditional pedestrian evacuation models in depicting individual behavioral differences and group emotion transmission mechanisms, the efficiency of pedestrian emergency evacuation was studied against the background of sudden public safety incidents in subway stations. Based on the cellular automaton model, environmental familiarity was introduced to reflect individual differences in pedestrian evacuation behaviors, and an escalator speed factor was incorporated to enhance the model’s applicability to real scenarios; simultaneously, combined with the SIR (susceptible-infective-removed) infectious disease model, the dynamic spread of panic emotion within the crowd was simulated, thereby constructing an evacuation simulation model that integrated the effects of environmental familiarity and panic emotion. Taking the platform of Nanjing Metro Station A as an example, a simulation was conducted to analyze the respective mechanisms of the two aforementioned factors and their interactive effects on the overall evacuation process. The results indicate that the evacuation process is significantly slowed down by the spread of panic, with the total evacuation time increasing by approximately 35%. Environmental familiarity is observed to have a significant positive impact on evacuation efficiency, as the evacuation time of highly familiar individuals is reduced by an average of 15% to 40%. Furthermore, as the panic threshold increases, the evacuation time generally shows a decreasing trend, stabilizing after reaching a certain critical value. By integrating cognitive familiarity and psychological emotional factors, this study addresses the insufficient characterization of individual behavioral heterogeneity in traditional models, providing a theoretical basis for the refined development of emergency evacuation plans in subway stations.

关键词

公共安全 / 应急疏散 / 元胞自动机 / 恐慌情绪 / 环境熟悉度 / SIR 模型 / 疏散仿真

Key words

public safety / emergency evacuation / elementary cellular automaton / panic / environmental familiarity / SIR model / evacuation simulation

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李艳,周佳嘉,刘雅,王付宇. 融合恐慌情绪与环境熟悉度的地铁站应急疏散仿真模型研究[J]. 安徽工业大学学报（自然科学版）, 2026, 43(4): 445-453 DOI:10.12415/j.issn.1671−7872.25104

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