基于气候变化对中国西瓜产业生产空间演变的研究

Study on the spatial evolution of watermelin industry production in China based on climate change

摘要

探究2002-2022年中国西瓜生产空间格局演变特征及气候因子驱动机制，为产业布局优化与气候适宜性策略制定提供科学依据。本研究基于中国31个西瓜生产省（区、市）的气象数据和西瓜生产数据，采用空间自相关分析（Moran’s I）和双向固定效应模型等方法开展研究。研究期内中国西瓜总产量呈平稳波动趋势，种植面积累计下降19.6%，单产累计提高25.3%，产业实现从外延扩张向内涵提升的集约型转型。西瓜生产空间格局由弱集聚向分散化演变，Moran’s I在2016年后显著下降并趋于不显著，空间分布趋向均衡。气候变化对西瓜生产布局的影响存在显著区域异质性，年均温度升高对西瓜生产具有普遍正向效应，极端高温在黄淮海产区表现为显著抑制；降水增加对西北产区西瓜生产呈负向影响；冰雹灾害对华南产区影响显著。中国西瓜产业已进入以单产驱动为核心的集约发展阶段，未来产业布局应遵循“分区施策、气候适应”原则，加强气候变化监测预警与适应性技术研发，推动产业向气候智能型方向转型。

Abstract

This study investigated the evolutionary characteristics of the spatial pattern of watermelon production in China from 2002 to 2022, and the driving mechanisms of climatic factors, aiming to provide a scientific basis for industrial layout optimization and climate suitability strategy formulation. Based on the meteorological data and watermelon production data of 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) in China, this study used spatial autocorrelation analysis (Moran’s I) and a two-way fixed effect model to carry out research. The results showed that during the study period, the total yield of watermelon in China exhibited a steady fluctuation trend, with planting area decreasing by 19.6% cumulatively, and per-unit yield increaseing by 25.3% cumulatively, indicating that the industry has undergone an intensive transformation from extension expansion to connotation improvement. The spatial pattern of watermelon production evolved from weak agglomeration to decentralization, with Moran’a I declining significantly after 2016 and becoming nonsignificant, suggesting a trend toward spatial distribution equilibrium. The impact of climate change on the distribution of watermelon production has significant regional heterogeneity. The increase of annual average temperature has a generally positive effect on watermelon production, while extreme high temperature shows significant inhibition in the Huang-Huai-Hai region. The increase of precipitation had a negative effect on watermelon production in Northwest China. Hail disaster has a significant impact on South China. In conclusion, China's watermelon industry has entered an intensive development stage driven primirily by per unit yield improvement. Future industrial layout should follow the principle of “zoning policy and climate adaptation”, strengthen climate change monitoring, early warning, and adaptive technology research and development, and promote the transformation of the industry to the climate intelligent direction.

关键词

西瓜 / 莫兰指数 / 空间集聚演变 / 气候因子

Key words

Watermelon / Moran index / Spatial agglomeration evolution / Climatic factors

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基金资助

湖南省智能农机创新研发项目(HNNJ-2023-06)