人工智能技术创新对城乡收入差距的影响：机制与效应^*

The Impact of the Development of Digital Economy on the Narrowing of the Urban-rural Income Gap: Mechanism and Effect

摘要

人工智能技术通过提升全要素生产率对经济增长形成显著促进作用，为经济体系优化升级提供技术支撑。然而该技术在催生经济新动能的过程中，亦可能引发就业市场结构化调整与收入分配格局变动等潜在风险，突出表现为显著的城乡收入差距。使用人工智能专利统计量构建人工智能技术创新指标，以2011-2023年278个地级及以上城市面板数据为分析样本，就人工智能技术创新对城乡收入差距的影响及内在机理进行实证检验。结果表明：人工智能技术创新与城乡收入差距之间呈现U型关系，即人工智能技术创新初期会缩小城乡收入差距，但人工智能技术创新进一步发展会扩大城乡收入差距，产生“技术鸿沟”问题。该结论在一系列稳健性检验后依然成立。机制检验发现，人工智能技术创新通过城镇化和城乡居民相对创业水平影响城乡收入差距，即在人工智能发展初期，该技术能推动城镇化并更显著地提升乡村创业水平；而后期则可能导致“逆城镇化”并更偏向于提升城市创业水平。进一步分析发现，农村基础设施建设和金融发展水平均能有效调节人工智能技术创新与城乡收入差距之间的U型关系。因此，前瞻性防范其发展后期可能加剧的城乡收入差距与“智能鸿沟”风险、加速弥合城乡“智能基础设施”鸿沟和强化面向农业农村的人工智能金融支持体系是人工智能技术创新赋能城乡收入差距缩小的重要手段。

Abstract

Artificial intelligence (AI) technology significantly promotes economic growth by enhancing Total Factor Productivity (TFP), providing crucial technological support for the optimization and upgrading of the economic system. However, while catalyzing new economic drivers, this technology may also induce potential risks such as structural adjustments in the labor market and changes in income distribution patterns, prominently manifested in widening urban-rural income disparities. Using AI patent statistics to construct an indicator of AI technological innovation, and employing panel data from 278 prefecture-level and above cities in China spanning 2011 to 2023 as the analytical sample, this study empirically examines the impact of AI technological innovation on the urban-rural income gap and its underlying mechanisms. The results demonstrate a "U-shaped" relationship between AI technological innovation and the urban-rural income gap. Specifically, AI innovation initially narrows the income disparity but subsequently widens it upon further development, leading to a technological divide. This finding remains robust across a battery of rigorous tests. AI technological innovation exerts its influence on the urban-rural income gap through its effects on urbanization and the relative entrepreneurship levels of urban and rural residents. In the early stages of AI development, the technology promotes urbanization and more significantly enhances rural entrepreneurship levels. In later stages, however, it may trigger "counter-urbanization" and disproportionately boost urban entrepreneurship. Further analysis reveals that both the advancement of rural infrastructure construction and the improvement of rural financial development levels effectively moderate the U-shaped relationship between AI innovation and the income gap. They amplify the positive effect of AI in narrowing the gap during its initial development phase while mitigating its negative effect of widening the gap in later stages. Therefore, it is important to prevent the risk of urban-rural income gap and "smart divide" that may intensify in the later stage of its development, accelerate the bridging of the urban-rural "smart infrastructure" gap, and strengthen the AI financial support system for agriculture and rural areas.

关键词

人工智能 / 技术创新 / 城乡收入差距 / 农村基础设施建设

Key words

artificial intelligence / technological innovation / urban-rural income disparity / rural infrastructure construction

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基金资助

*国家社会科学基金重大项目(22&ZD111)

江西省社会科学基金项目(25JL07)