耕地“三位一体”保护影响粮食产量的组态路径研^*——基于NCA和fsQCA的双重分析

Research on the Configuration Path of the "Trinity" Protection of Cultivated Land Affecting Grain Yield--Based on the Dual Analysis of NCA and fsQCA

摘要

粮食安全是“国之大者”，探究耕地“三位一体”保护影响粮食产量的组态路径，为推动耕地利用绿色转型、维系国家粮食安全和生态安全提供经验借鉴。基于NCA和fsQCA的组态分析方法，以中国相关省域为案例，剖析耕地“三位一体”保护的多维因素对区域粮食产量的联动效应，揭示粮食产量提升的多元驱动路径。研究发现：土地开垦强度、土地灌溉排水能力、农业机械化程度是引致地区粮食产量提升的必要条件。耕地“三位一体”保护存在“数量-质量-生态”均衡驱动型、“数量-质量”双重导向型和质量导向型三类促进粮食产量提升的路径。耕地“三位一体”保护影响粮食产量的组态路径存在明显的区位、地形和生产布局异质性。我国耕地保护对粮食产量作用受三维联动因素组合影响，需按照系统论、多元化和差异化要求，做到多措并举、推进机制创新、契合粮食产能，夯实耕地“三位一体”保护力度。

Abstract

Food security is the "greatest power of the country", and this paper explores the configuration path of the "trinity" protection of cultivated land affecting grain production, so as to provide experience and reference for promoting the green transformation of cultivated land use and maintaining national food security and ecological security. Based on the configuration analysis method of NCA and fsQCA, this paper takes Chinese provinces as a case study to explore the linkage effect of multi-dimensional factors of cultivated land "trinity" protection on regional grain production, and reveals the multiple driving paths of grain yield improvement. The results show that the intensity of land reclamation, the ability of land irrigation and drainage, and the degree of agricultural mechanization are the necessary conditions for the increase of regional grain production. There are three types of paths to promote the improvement of grain yield in the "trinity" of cultivated land: quantity-quality-ecological equilibrium-driven, quantity-quality dual-oriented and quality-oriented. There is obvious heterogeneity in the configuration path of the "trinity" protection of cultivated land affecting grain yield, such as location, topography and production layout. The effect of cultivated land protection on grain yield in China is affected by the combination of three-dimensional linkage factors, and it is necessary to take multiple measures at the same time, promote mechanism innovation, and consolidate the "trinity" protection of cultivated land in line with the requirements of system theory, diversification and differentiation.

关键词

耕地“三位一体”保护 / 粮食产量 / 模糊集定性比较分析 / 组态路径

Key words

"trinity" protection of cultivated land / grain production / fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis / configuration path

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基金资助

*国家社会科学基金项目(22BGL175)

中国博士后科学基金项目(2021M700737)

黑龙江省博士后基金项目(LBH-Z20037)