数字经济驱动现代服务业与现代农业深度融合的机制分析与实证检验^*

Mechanism Analysis and Empirical Examination of the Integration of Modern Agriculture and Service Industry Driven by Digital Economy

摘要

现代服务业与现代农业的深度融合是推动农业现代化和构建现代产业体系的关键路径。数字经济作为新质生产力，为“两业”融合注入了新动能。文章基于2012-2021年中国31个省份的面板数据，实证检验数字经济对“两业”融合的驱动效应及作用机制。研究发现，我国服务业与农业融合水平整体偏低但稳步上升，区域差异显著。数字经济显著促进了“两业”融合，该结论在内生性控制与稳健性检验后依然成立。异质性分析表明，该效应在东部、西部及政策支持强地区更显著。机制检验显示，数字经济通过推动产业技术创新和人力资本水平间接推动融合深化，并存在信息化水平与农业科技投入主导的门槛效应。进一步分析发现，科学技术服务业、公共服务业与旅游业的融合作用最为显著。据此，建议强化数字基础设施建设，完善区域协调政策，提升创新能力，培养数字人才，释放数字经济在推动农业服务化与产业融合中的作用。

Abstract

The deep integration of modern services and modern agriculture is a key pathway for promoting agricultural modernization and building a modern industrial system. As a representative of new productive forces, the digital economy injects new momentum and mechanisms into the integration of the two. Based on panel data from 31 provinces (municipalities) in China from 2012 to 2021, this paper systematically analyzes the driving effects and mechanisms of the digital economy on the integration of the two sectors. The study finds that the level of integration between services and agriculture in China is generally low, with significant regional differences, but it shows an overall upward trend. The digital economy has significantly promoted the deep integration of the two sectors, with the conclusion remaining robust even after controlling of endogeneity and conducting multiple robustness checks. Heterogeneity analysis shows that this effect is more pronounced in the eastern, western, and policy-supportive regions. Mechanism tests indicate that the digital economy indirectly promotes the deepening of integration by enhancing industrial technological innovation and human capital levels, showing nonlinear threshold characteristics dominated by informatization levels and agricultural technology investment. Further analysis reveals that the impact of the digital economy on the integration of various service sectors and agriculture varies, with the most significant integration observed in scientific and technological services, public services, and tourism. Based on these findings, it is recommended to strengthen digital infrastructure, improve regional coordination policies, enhance technological innovation capabilities, and cultivate digital talent, fully unleashing the key role of the digital economy in promoting agricultural service and industrial integration.

关键词

数字经济 / 现代服务业 / 现代农业 / 产业融合 / 机制分析

Key words

digital economy / modern service Industry / modern agriculture / industrial integration / mechanism analysis

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基金资助

*国家社会科学基金一般项目(21BJY188)

重庆市教委重点基地项目(24SKJD107)