面向复杂适应性的城市防灾设施网络建模与韧性优化研究

Advances in Network Modeling and Resilience Optimization of Urban Disaster Prevention Facilities for Complex Adaptability

摘要

为解决灾害与城市防灾设施系统在交互胁迫、耦合共生及累积演化中的复杂性问题,如何从复杂适应性系统(complex adaptive system,CAS)角度对防灾设施系统进行建模与优化,已成为提升城市韧性、实现城市可持续发展的关键。针对城市防灾设施系统的复杂拓扑结构和动力学行为,本研究以CAS为理论框架,探讨系统的非线性、不确定性和动态性等复杂特征,评估CAS在防灾设施系统中的适用性,并对城市防灾设施系统相关的网络建模与优化方法进行系统归纳与总结,提炼出其静态网络拓扑建模与动态关联关系建模上的研究进展。在此基础上,基于城市防灾设施系统的空间布局形式及其动态演化逻辑,提炼出城市防灾设施系统未来可从分布鲁棒优化、网络结构优化、系统功能优化3个方面进行韧性探索。研究成果可以为防灾设施系统内在关联结构及其互馈关系的研究提供理论支持,也可以为我国韧性防灾空间建设提供实践指导。

Abstract

To address the complexity inherent in urban disaster prevention systems, which involve interactive constraints, coupling symbiosis, and cumulative evolution, modeling and optimizing disaster prevention facilities from the perspective of complex adaptive systems (CAS) is essential for enhancing urban resilience and achieving sustainable urban development. This study focused on the intricate topological structure and dynamic behaviors of urban disaster prevention systems. Using CAS as the theoretical framework, it examines key system characteristics such as nonlinearity, uncertainty, and dynamics. The study evaluated the applicability of CAS to urban disaster prevention systems, systematically reviewing network modeling and optimization methods relevant to these systems, focusing on static network topology modeling and dynamic interdependencies. Building on this foundation, the paper outlined future research directions in urban disaster prevention system optimization, focusing on three key areas: robust distribution optimization, network structure optimization, and system function optimization. The findings provide theoretical support for understanding the internal relationships and feedback loops within disaster prevention systems, providing practical guidance for the development of resilient disaster prevention infrastructure in China.

关键词

防灾规划 / 城市防灾设施 / 系统关联 / 网络建模 / 韧性优化 / 复杂适应性

Key words

disaster prevention planning / urban disaster prevention facilities / system association / network modeling / resilience optimization / complex adaptability

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基金资助

国家自然科学基金资助项目(52278472)

北京市自然科学基金资助项目(8232004)