基于复杂网络改进层次分析法的城市区域关键基础设施综合重要度评估

Comprehensive Criticality Assessment of Critical Infrastructure in Urban Areas Based on a Complex Network Improved Analytic Hierarchy Process

摘要

为了解决关键基础设施在风险评估中设施重要度优先级排序的问题,提出一种复杂网络改进层次分析法(complex network improved analytic hierarchy process,CN-AHP),从系统功能和袭击难度2个方面对关键基础设施系统中不同设施的重要度进行了分析和评估。该方法主要包括基于基础设施系统空间位置和要素流转关系进行复杂网络建模、对系统不同功能子网络中的设施进行功能权重分析和不同设施隐蔽程度与受损难度的权重判断、系统功能子网络权重分析和不同设施袭击难度权重分析、系统设施综合重要度分析4个基本步骤。基于某工程案例对所提方法进行实证研究,证明了所提方法的可行性。计算结果表明,在此关键基础设施系统中的设施按综合重要度由高到低排序为:设施A、设施C、设施G、设施D、设施E、设施F、设施B。

Abstract

Critical infrastructure has become a core research topic in the military field in recent years due to its significant role in national security. This study introduces a complex network improved analytic hierarchy process (CN-AHP), designed to assess the importance of different facilities within CI systems from two perspectives: system functionality and vulnerability to attack. The method consists of four key steps: 1) constructing a complex network model based on the spatial locations and element flow relationships within the infrastructure system; 2) analyzing functional weights of facilities in different functional sub-networks; 3) assessing concealment levels and damage difficulty of various facilities; and 4) analyzing the weights of sub-network functions and attack difficulty for different facilities, followed by a comprehensive importance assessment. An empirical case study was conducted to validate the method, demonstrating its feasibility. The calculation results ranked the facilities in this CI system by comprehensive importance in descending order as follows: Facility A, Facility C, Facility G, Facility D, Facility E, Facility F, and Facility B.

关键词

关键基础设施 / 恐怖袭击 / 重要度 / 层次分析法 / 复杂网络 / 复杂网络层次分析法

Key words

critical infrastructure / terrorist attacks / importance / analytic hierarchy process (AHP) / complex networks / complex network improved analytic hierarchy process (CN-AHP)

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基金资助

国家自然科学基金资助项目(52178445)

国家自然科学基金资助项目(52108427)