双渠道旅游服务供应链下的游客潜在类别和选择行为

Latent Class Analysis and Selection Behavior of Self-driving Tourist Considering Dual-channel Tourism Service Supply Chain

摘要

新兴的旅游出行服务(tourism mobility service,TMS)与传统旅游服务供应商构成了双渠道旅游服务供应链,探索双渠道旅游服务供应链下的服务模式、自驾游游客态度和出行行为的关系,可以提升旅游信息系统水平和自驾游游客体验。基于创新扩散理论,挖掘自驾游游客的旅游服务供应链模式选择机理,采用意愿调查法获取双渠道旅游服务供应链服务信息、游客对TMS行为态度、服务模式选择意向数据。运用潜在类别分析方法,将自驾游游客分为积极的创新推动者(Class 1)和保守的创新者(Class 2)2类用户,分别建立基于LCM-Logit模型的游客旅游服务模式-预约服务内容联合选择模型,并进行敏感性分析。结果表明:自驾游持续时间、对TMS的发展态度等对Class 1的旅游服务模式和预约服务内容选择产生显著影响;提供TMS信息等对Class 2的预约服务内容选择有显著影响。对积极创新和保守的自驾游游客而言,当TMS提供景区余票比例信息且景区余票比例大于75%时或者小于5%时,其弹性值的绝对值大于1,选择TMS渠道的概率变化富有弹性,研究可为TMS的应用和发展提供参考依据。

Abstract

Since tourism mobility service (TMS) has significantly changed the structure of the tourism supply chain and formed a dual-channel tourism service supply chain with traditional travel service providers (TTSP), it is important to explore the relationship among service mode under dual-channel tourism service supply chain, attitude towards TMS and behavior for improving the level of tourism information system and tourists' satisfaction. Based on innovation diffusion theory, the mechanism of self-driving tourists in the dual-channel tourism service supply chain was explored. Stated preference surveys were designed and tourists' travel information demand, attitude towards TMS and tourism supply chain choice behavior were collected. Using the latent class analysis method, the respondents were divided into two potential categories: active innovation promoters and conservative innovators. Subsequently, joint choice models for tourist service model and reservation service content were constructed, respectively, based on LCM-Logit model, followed by sensitivity analysis. Results show that travel information (duration of self-driving tour, and so on) and the attitude towards TMS significantly impact tourist tourism supply chain and travel reservation content decision of the active innovation promoters. TMS information significantly impacts on travel reservation content decision for the conservative innovators. The sensitive analysis reveals that when the remained ticket ratio is more than 75% or smaller than 5%, the absolute value of the elastic value for active innovation promoter and conservative innovator are both more than 1, indicating that the probability of TMS tourism service supply chain is elastic. The study can provide a reference for the application and development of TMS.

关键词

双渠道旅游服务供应链 / 旅游出行服务(TMS) / 创新扩散理论 / 潜在类别分析 / LCM-Logit模型 / 旅游服务模式-预约服务内容联合选择模型

Key words

dual-channel travel service supply chain / tourism mobility service (TMS) / innovation diffusion theory / latent class analysis / LCM-Logit model / joint decision model of tourism supply chain and travel reservation

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基金资助

国家自然科学基金资助项目(71971005)

北京市自然科学基金资助项目(8202003)