基于可变邻域元胞自动机的城市地震次生火灾蔓延模型研究

A Study on the Spread Model of Urban Earthquake-induced Fires Based on Variable Neighborhood Cellular Automata

摘要

为了解决以往城市地震次生火灾演化过程难以真实刻画的问题,构建了一种可变邻域元胞自动机的地震次生火灾仿真模型:基于建筑的震害分析和经验起火公式确定区域的起火点,根据建筑的材料类型和结构形式确定火源热释放速率曲线,设定建筑起火后的燃烧过程,考虑不同类型火灾蔓延方式构建元胞自动机的邻域规则,确定未倒塌建筑物对火灾热辐射的遮挡作用采用拓展邻域型元胞自动机,风传播造成的飞火随机运动采用不规则邻域型元胞自动机。然后,以北京市大栅栏为研究对象,应用所提出的模型进行地震次生火灾时空蔓延模拟仿真,并对地震加速度、风速和风向对于火灾蔓延的影响进行了讨论。研究结果表明:该模型可较为真实地快速模拟城市地震次生火灾的动态蔓延过程,有助于离散模型描述地震次生火灾演化特征。研究结果能够丰富城市地震次生火灾仿真,为城市防灾减灾工作提供决策支持。

Abstract

To realistically depict the evolution of urban earthquake-induced fires, a simulation model of earthquake-induced fire based on variable neighborhood cellular automata is constructed. Ignition points in the area are determined based on seismic damage analysis and empirical ignition formulas. The heat release rate curve of the fire source is established according to the material types and structure types of the buildings, defining the combustion process after ignition. Neighbourhood rules for cellular automata are constructed, considering different types of fire spread. The shielding effect of undamaged buildings on thermal radiation from the fire is modeled using expanded-neighbourhood cellular automata, while the random movement of flying embers caused by wind propagation is modeled using irregular-neighborhood cellular automata. Beijing Dashilan is taken as the research object. The proposed model was used to simulate the spatiotemporal spread of urban secondary fire induced by earthquake, and the effects of earthquake acceleration, wind speed, and wind direction on fire spread were discussed. The research results indicate show that this model can accurately and quickly simulate the spatiotemporal dynamic spread process of urban secondary fire induced by earthquake, which helps discrete models describe the evolution characteristics of urban secondary fire induced by earthquake. The research results can enrich the simulation of urban secondary fire induced by earthquake and provide decision support for urban disaster prevention and reduction work.

关键词

可变邻域 / 元胞自动机 / 城市地震次生火灾 / 热辐射 / 飞火 / 仿真

Key words

variable neighborhood / cellular automata / urban secondary fire induced by earthquake / heat radiation / firebrand / simulation

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基金资助

国家自然科学基金资助项目(52278472)

北京市自然科学基金资助项目(8232004)