卫星重力对广东省陆地水储量的时空变化监测及其驱动因素分析 ^*

Monitoring spatio-temporal changes of terrestrial water storage in Guangdong province based on satellite gravity and analysis of driving factors

摘要

水资源是维系生态系统与经济发展的核心要素，近年来国家积极开展水资源基础调查，为区域水资源管理收集基础水文信息. 鉴于此，本文综合利用 GRACE/GRACE-FO、GLDAS 与实测地下水资料，探讨了 2002 年 4 月-2024 年 12 月广东省陆地水、地表水、地下水储量的时空变化，并结合降水、温度、潜在蒸散及用水量等数据分析了区域水储量变化的驱动因素. 结果表明：广东省陆地水储量在东部与北部盈余，其整体变化速率达到（0.19±0.09） cm·a^-1，且与水资源公报数据相对变化率的吻合度达到 72.4%；而地下水储蓄功能则因开采压力在中部与西部受限，其与实测地下水位变化的相关系数为 0.73. 驱动因素分析显示：水储量变化与气象因素的关联程度从高到低依次为降水、潜在蒸散与气温，且与用水量呈负相关；在极端旱涝事件监测方面，干旱指数 GRACE-DSI 与标准化降水指数 SPI 对区域干旱与洪涝事件的识别吻合度分别达 51.9% 与 62.5%，且有效反映出水资源公报记录的丰枯水年份类型. 相关结果可为全省水资源调查提供大尺度范围的数据参考.

Abstract

Water resource is the core element for maintaining ecosystems and economic development. In recent years, China has actively carried out fundamental surveys of water resources to collect baseline hydrological data for regional water management. In this context, this study integrates GRACE/GRACE-FO, GLDAS and measured groundwater data to investigate spatio-temporal changes in terrestrial water storage (TWSA), surface water storage (SWSA), and groundwater storage (GWSA) in Guangdong province from April 2002 to December 2024. This study analyzes driving factors for changes in regional water storage using precipitation, temperature, potential evapotranspiration, and water consumption data. In Guangdong province, TWSA shows surpluses in eastern and northern regions, with an overall rate of change at (0.19±0.09) cm·a ^-1 and a consistency of 72.4% in relative change rates compared to water resource bulletin data. GWSA saving function in central and western regions was limited by exploitation, and correlation coefficient between GWSA and measured groundwater changes reached 0.73. Driver analysis revealed that changes in terrestrial water storage correlated with meteorological factors in descending order of correlation strength: precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, and temperature, but exhibiting a negative correlation with water consumption. Regarding extreme drought and flood events monitoring, drought index GRACE-DSI and standardized precipitation index (SPI) reach 51.9% and 62.5% agreements respectively for identifying regional drought and flood events, and effectively reflected types of wet and dry years recorded in the water resource bulletin. These findings provide large-scale data references for fundamental surveys of water resources in Guangdong province.

关键词

GRACE / 广东省 / 陆地水储量 / 降水 / 干旱指数

Key words

GRACE / Guangdong province / terrestrial water storage / precipitation / drought index

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基金资助

广东省基础与应用基础研究资助项目(2023A1515110276)