迈向时空均衡：赣江绿色流域水平动态演化与多因子驱动 ^*

Toward spatiotemporal equilibrium: dynamic evolution and multi-factor driving mechanisms of the green watershed level in the Ganjiang River basin

摘要

在全球变暖与生态退化叠加下，构建“智简高效”的绿色流域评估体系已成为可持续发展核心议题. 本研究以赣江流域为例，构建了一个涵盖“时序-空间-时空”三维的分析框架. 在基于AHP-EWM组合赋权法构建综合指数，对2003-2022年江西省11地市的绿色流域水平进行测度的基础上，综合运用趋势检验、空间自相关与收敛性分析，揭示了GWL的时空演变特征，并采用时空地理加权回归模型，辨识了“人-水-能-碳-绿-城”多维因子的驱动机制. 结果表明：时序上，GWL持续上升且无突变，2016年起由缓慢增长进入快速增长阶段；空间上，呈南高北低，局部以“高-低”“低-高”聚类为主，区域差异呈“N”型下降，空间不均衡收敛；时空上，GWL重心向西南迁移，分布先聚后散，11市GWL由2003年4市中值、7市低值至2020年全域进入0.6~0.8高值区间， σ、 α、 β三重收敛证明11市GWL正迈向时空均衡；驱动机制上，6要素边际效应相继越顶衰减，人口与碳生产力先后由正转负，水、森林边际红利迅速缩减，能源正向效应扩散放缓，城镇化效应已过拐点趋零. 研究结论可为赣江绿色流域高品质建设提供历史借鉴与精准施策依据，也为其他省份构建绿色流域提供方法论参考.

Abstract

With pressures from global warming and ecological degradation, it has become a core issue to establish a system for “intelligent, streamlined and efficient” green watershed assessment in sustainable development. In this paper a three-dimensional, nine-level framework integrating “temporal-spatial-spatiotemporal” dimensions is proposed for the Ganjiang River basin. The framework, (coupling AHP-EWM, M-K trend and abrupt change tests, piecewise-linear-fitting, Moran’s I, LISA clustering, Dagum Gini, standard deviation ellipses and triple convergence tests σ- α- β), comprehensively measures the green watershed level (GWL) across 11 cities in Jiangxi province from 2003-2022. GTWR analysis reveals driving patterns of six factors: human-water-energy-carbon-green-urban. Temporally, GWL exhibits sustained growth without abrupt changes, transitioning from slow to rapid growth from 2016. Spatially, GWL shows higher values in the south but lower in the north, with predominant “high-low” and “low-high” local clusters. Regional disparities decline in an “N”-shaped pattern, reflecting spatially unbalanced convergence. In spatiotemporal coupling, GWL center of gravity shifted southwestward, with distribution patterns evolving from clustering to dispersion. GWL of the 11 cities progressed from a median value in 4 cities and a low value in 7 cities in 2003 to a high-value range of 0.6–0.8 across all regions by 2020. Triple convergence of σ, α, and β confirms that GWL of the 11 cities is moving toward spatiotemporal equilibrium. Regarding driving mechanisms, marginal effects of six factors successively peaked and declined: population and carbon productivity shifted from positive to negative, water and forest marginal dividends rapidly diminished, positive effect of energy expanded at a slower pace, and urbanization effect passed its inflection point to approach zero. These findings provide historical references and precise policy guidance for high-quality developments in the Ganjiang River basin, offering methodological insights for other provinces as well.

关键词

绿色流域 / 综合评价 / 时序演化 / 空间格局 / 时空耦合 / 驱动机制

Key words

green watershed / comprehensive assessment / temporal evolution / spatial pattern / spatio-temporal coupling / driving mechanism

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基金资助

国家重点研发计划资助项目(2023YFC3205600)