未来气候情景下引汉济渭工程水源区水文情势演变规律研究

韩忠青; 刘招; 肖瑜; 张嘉琪; 张晋霞; 岳甲寅; 申思齐

doi:10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2025.01.003

水利水电技术（中英文） ›› 2025, Vol. 56 ›› Issue (1) : 26 -38. DOI: 10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2025.01.003

复合极端天气气候事件与洪涝灾害机理专栏

未来气候情景下引汉济渭工程水源区水文情势演变规律研究

韩忠青 ¹^,²^,³ ,
刘招 ¹^,²^,³ ,
肖瑜 ⁴ ,
张嘉琪 ¹^,²^,³ ,
张晋霞 ¹^,²^,³ ,
岳甲寅 ¹^,²^,³ ,
申思齐 ¹^,²^,³

作者信息 +

Research on the evolution law of hydrological situation in the water source area of the Hanjiang-to-Weihe River Valley Water Diversion Project under future climate scenarios

Zhongqing HAN ¹^,²^,³ ,
Zhao LIU ¹^,²^,³ ,
Yu XIAO ⁴ ,
Jiaqi ZHANG ¹^,²^,³ ,
Jinxia ZHANG ¹^,²^,³ ,
Jiayin YUE ¹^,²^,³ ,
Siqi SHEN ¹^,²^,³

Author information +

文章历史 +

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摘要

【目的】为探究气候变化条件下引汉济渭工程水源区的水资源情势，保障跨流域调水重大工程高效和持续运行，【方法】采用第六次国际耦合模式比较计划(CMIP6)中CMCC-ESM2气候模式下的3种情景(SSP1-2.6、SSP3-7.0、SSP5-8.5)数据，驱动引汉济渭工程水源区SWAT模型，分析未来气候情景下引汉济渭工程水源区水文情势演变趋势。【结果】结果显示：未来2025—2100年，SSP1-2.6情景下，水源区降水和径流均呈减少趋势，最高、最低气温呈增加趋势，但近期(2025—2050年)、中期(2051—2075年)和远期(2076—2100年)降水量和径流量均高于基准期(1980—2020年);SSP3-7.0情景下降水、径流和最高、最低气温均呈增加趋势，但SSP3-7.0情景下近期、中期和远期降水量均低于基准期，近期径流量也低于基准期；SSP5-8.5情景下降水、径流和最高、最低气温也呈增加趋势，近期、中期和远期降水量和径流量均高于基准期。【结论】未来随着辐射强迫的增加，引汉济渭工程水源区有变暖、变湿的趋势。通过对未来气候变化进行模拟，分析引汉济渭工程水源区水文情势演变趋势，可为引汉济渭工程水资源调配和管理，区域水资源利用提供科学依据和理论支撑。

Abstract

[Objective] To explore the water resource situation in the water source area of the Hanjiang-to-Weihe River Valley Water Diversion Project under climate change conditions, and to ensure the efficient and sustainable operation of major cross basin water transfer projects.[Methods] Three scenarios(SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5) under the CMCC-ESM2 climate model in the 6th International Coupled Model Intercomparison Program(CMIP6) were used to drive the SWAT model of the water source area of the Hanjiang-to-Weihe River Valley Water Diversion Project, and to analyze the evolution trend of hydrological conditions in the water source area of the Hanjiang-to-Weihe River Valley Water Diversion Project under future climate scenarios.[Results] The result showed that from 2025 to 2100, under the SSP1-2.6 scenario, the precipitation and runoff in the water source area showed a decreasing trend, while the highest and lowest temperatures showed an increasing trend. However, the precipitation and runoff in the near future(2025—2050), medium term(2051—2075), and long term(2076—2100) were higher than those in the reference period(1980—2020); Under the SSP3-7.0 scenario, precipitation, runoff, and highest and lowest air temperatures all show an increasing trend. However, under the SSP3-7.0 scenario, the precipitation in the near, medium, and long term is lower than the baseline period, and the recent runoff is also lower than the baseline period; Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, precipitation, runoff, and maximum and minimum temperatures also show an increasing trend, with recent, medium-term, and long-term precipitation and runoff all higher than the baseline period.[Conclusion] In the future, with the increase of radiation forcing, there will be a trend of warming and wetting in the water source area of Hanjiang-to-Weihe River Valley Water Diversion Project. By simulating future climate change and analyzing the evolution trend of hydrological conditions in the water source area of the Hanjiang-to-Weihe River Valley Water Diversion Project, scientific basis and theoretical support can be provided for the allocation and management of water resources in the project and the utilization of regional water resources.