消费者水效标识采纳行为的动态演化仿真研究

Simulation study on the dynamic evolution of consumers′ adoption behavior for water efficiency labeling

摘要

【目的】为促进水效标识的普及与推广,从消费者角度探究其对水效标识的采纳行为,【方法】基于动机理论与刺激-有机体-反应(S-O-R)模型,运用扎根理论分析消费者水效标识采纳行为的影响因素,并利用随机森林分类算法确定关键影响指标,在此基础上构建系统动力学模型对消费者水效标识采纳行为进行动态演化仿真。【结果】结果显示:仿真周期内采纳行为水平的演化趋势可分为三个阶段,前期基本保持不变,中期缓慢上升,后期快速上升;内部需求或外部诱因对采纳行为动机的敏感性大小依次为:经济需求>心理需求>群体规范>营销策略;个体因素对采纳行为水平的敏感性大小依次为:认知程度>节水意识>感知信任>感知价值;情境因素对采纳行为水平的敏感性大小依次为:宣传教育>节水氛围。【结论】结果表明:消费者水效标识采纳行为水平在仿真周期内呈现先慢后快的上升趋势;经济需求是刺激消费者产生采纳行为动机的关键要素;认知程度和宣传教育是影响消费者采纳行为动机外化为采纳行为的重要因素。研究结果揭示了消费者水效标识采纳行为的动态演化规律,可为其促进策略与实施路径的设计提供理论依据。

Abstract

[Objective] In order to promote the popularization and dissemination of water efficiency labeling, and explores the adoption behavior for water efficiency labeling from the perspective of consumers, [Methods] based on the Motivation Theory and the Stimuli-Organism-Response( S-O-R) Model, the influence factors of consumers′ adoption behavior for water-efficiency labeling were analyzed by using the Grounded Theory, and the key influence indexes were identified by using the Random Forest Classifier, and the System Dynamics Model was constructed on this basis to simulate the dynamic evolution of consumers′adoption behavior for water efficiency labeling. [Results] The results show that: the evolution trend of adoption behavior in the simulation cycle can be divided into three stages, basically unchanged in the early stage, slowly rising in the middle stage, and rapidly rising in the late stage; the sensitivity of internal demands or external triggers to the motivation for adoption behavior is in the order of size: economic demands>psychological demands>group norms >marketing strategies; the sensitivity of individual factors to the level of adoption behavior is in the order of size: cognition degree > water-saving awareness > perceived trust >perceived value; the sensitivity of environmental factors to the level of adoption behavior is in the order of size: publicity and education>water-saving atmosphere. [Conclusion] The result indicate that: the level of consumers′ adoption behavior for water efficiency labeling shows a slow and then fast rising trend during the simulation period; economic demands are the key elements to stimulate consumers′ motivation for adoption behavior; cognition degree and publicity and education are the most important factors to influence consumers′ motivation for adoption behavior to be externalized into adoption behavior. The study reveals the dynamic evolution of consumers′ adoption behavior for water efficiency labeling, which can provide a theoretical basis for the design of promotion strategies and implementation paths.

关键词

水效标识 / 采纳行为 / 系统动力学 / 动态演化 / 仿真 / 影响因素

Key words

water efficiency labeling / adoption behavior / system dynamics / dynamic evolution / simulation / influence factor