基于BO-LSTM的排露沟流域气象水文演变分析及径流预测模型建立

康永德; 陈佩; 许尔文; 任小凤; 敬文茂; 张娟

doi:10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2025.04.001

水利水电技术（中英文） ›› 2025, Vol. 56 ›› Issue (4) : 1 -11. DOI: 10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2025.04.001

复合极端天气气候事件与洪涝灾害机理专栏

基于BO-LSTM的排露沟流域气象水文演变分析及径流预测模型建立

康永德 ¹^,² ,
陈佩 ¹ ,
许尔文 ²^,³ ,
任小凤 ²^,³ ,
敬文茂 ²^,³ ,
张娟 ²^,³

作者信息 +

Analysis of meteorological and hydrological evolution and establishment of runoff prediction model in Pailugou Watershed based on BO-LSTM

Yongde KANG ¹^,² ,
Pei CHEN ¹ ,
Erwen XU ²^,³ ,
Xiaofeng REN ²^,³ ,
Wenmao JING ²^,³ ,
Juan ZHANG ²^,³

Author information +

文章历史 +

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摘要

【目的】为揭示祁连山排露沟流域水文情势演变特征，并且为流域未来的水资源管理和优化配置提供依据和参考【方法】根据祁连山野外观测站2000—2019年实测径流和水文资料，采用线性趋势法、Pettitt检验、小波分析等方法，开展了降水与气温对径流量变化的影响，并建立了BO-LSTM排露沟流域径流预测模型。【结果】结果显示：(1)2000—2019年排露沟流域降水、气温和径流呈现两段式的上升趋势，分界点在2010年，降水和径流，第一阶段上升趋势均高于第二阶段，斜率依次为10.74、3.16;气温则相反，第二阶段高于第一阶段，斜率为0.11。并且降水、气温和径流的MK突变检验z值均大于0。(2)降水量在5—10月对径流量变化的贡献率较大；而气温在12月—次年4月对径流变化的贡献率大。(3)排露沟流域气温主要有3 a、14 a两个主周期，其中第一主周期为14 a;径流存在19 a、9 a和3 a三个主周期，其中第一主周期为19 a;降水主要存在4 a、11 a两个主周期，第一主周期为11 a。(4)BO-LSTM排露沟径流预测模型，精度R²为0.63,均方根误差为14 047 m³,模型在径流量较小月份的预测精度大于径流量较大的月份。【结论】近20年来排露沟流域的降水、气温及径流均呈上升趋势；排露沟流域径流、降水及气温均存在明显的周期性；气温和降水是影响排露沟流域径流的重要因素；径流预测模型可以适用于排露沟流域。上述研究结果为祁连山水资源效应研究和内陆河流域水资源预测提供科学支撑。

Abstract

[Objective] To reveal the characteristics of hydrological situation evolution in Pailugou watershed of Qilian Mountains, and to provide a basis and reference for future water resource management and optimal allocation in the watershed. [Methods] Based on the measured runoff and hydrological data of Qilian Mountain Field Observatory from 2000 to 2019, the effects of precipitation and temperature on runoff were investigated by using the linear trend method, Pettitt′s test, and wavelet analysis, et al., and a BO-LSTM runoff prediction model for the Pailudou Basin was established.[Results] 1)From 2000 to 2019, precipitation, air temperature and runoff in Pailugou Watershed showed a two-stage upward trend, and the cutoff point was in 2010, precipitation and runoff, the first stage of the upward trend are higher than the second stage, the slope is 10.74, 3.16 in turn; air temperature is the opposite, the second stage is higher than the first stage, the slope is 0.11. And precipitation, air temperature and runoff of the MK mutation test z-value are greater than 0.(2)Precipitation in the May-October months on the runoff changes of the contribution rate is larger; and air temperature in the December-April months on the runoff changes of the contribution rate is large.(3)The air temperature in Pailougou Basin mainly has two main cycles, 3 a and 14 a, of which the first main cycle is 14 a; runoff exists in three main cycles, 19 a, 9 a and 3 a, of which the first main cycle is 19 a; precipitation mainly exists in two main cycles, 4 a and 11 a, of which the first main cycle is 11 a.(4)The BO-LSTM runoff prediction model for Pailougou, with an accuracy of R² of 0.63 and a root-mean-square error of 14 047 m³, and the prediction accuracy of the model is greater in months with smaller runoff than in months with larger runoff. [Conclusion] Precipitation, air temperature and runoff in Pailugou Basin have been on an upward trend in the past 20 years. Runoff, precipitation and air temperature in Pailugou Basin have obvious cyclicity. Air temperature and precipitation are important factors affecting the runoff in Pailugou Basin. The runoff prediction model can be applied to Pailugou Basin. The above results provide scientific support for the study of water resource effects in the Qilian Mountains and the prediction of water resources in inland river basins.