台风大风暴雨复合致灾的灾害风险评估研究：以福州市为例

Study on risk assessment of compound disasters caused by typhoon-induced gales and storms: A case study of Fuzhou City

摘要

【目的】科学评估灾害风险对提升区域灾害防御能力、针对性地制定防灾抗灾减灾措施具有重要意义。【方法】以福州市为例，基于地面气象观测资料、历史台风灾害数据，以及1 km网格的人口、经济、建筑物等承灾体调查数据，运用Copula函数和风险矩阵模型，综合评估不同重现期情景下台风大风和台风暴雨复合致灾风险。【结果】结果表明：(1)千年一遇情景下，闽清县风雨设计值最小，复合重现期对应设计值为26.03 m/s与463.72 mm;罗源县和长乐区复合重现期对应设计值最大，分别为57.78 m/s、1 173.87 mm与65.42 m/s、1 094.27 mm。(2)随着重现期水平提高，致灾因子危险性自东部沿海向西部山区增大。承灾体中高、高脆弱性地区主要分布于福州市主城区以及东南临海乡镇，与人口、经济和建筑物的集中度密切相关。(3)福州市台风灾害风险大致呈“东高西低”格局，随着重现期水平提高，灾害风险由东北、东南部沿海向内陆地区提高，福州市主城区、长乐区、罗源县、福清市风险高于其余地区。(4)极端灾害条件下(如千年一遇),中高、高风险区主要位于福州市东北、东南部与主城区，占全市总面积的34.5%。【结论】福州市台风灾害风险大致呈“东高西低”格局，随着重现期水平提高，灾害风险由东北、东南部沿海向内陆地区提高，极端灾害条件下(如千年一遇),中高、高风险区主要位于福州市东北、东南部与主城区。

Abstract

[Objective] Scientific evaluation of disaster risks is crucial for improving regional disaster prevention capabilities and formulating targeted measures for disaster prevention, response, and mitigation. [Methods] Taking Fuzhou City as an example, the ground meteorological observations, historical typhoon disaster data, and 1 km-grid survey data of population, economy, buildings, and other disaster-bearing bodies were utilized. Then, the Copula function and risk matrix model were used to assess the compound disaster risks from typhoon-induced gales and storms under different return periods. [Results] The results indicated that:(1) under the scenario of 1 000-year compound return period, the design values of typhoon extreme wind speed and cumulative rainfall in Minqing County were the smallest, with the values being 26.03 m/s and 463.72 mm, respectively. Luoyuan County and Changle District showed the maximum design values under this compound return period, reaching 57.78 m/s and 1 173.87 mm, and 65.42 m/s and 1 094.27 mm, respectively.(2) As the level of return period increased, the hazard levels of disaster-inducing factors exhibited an increasing trend from the eastern coastal areas to the western mountainous areas. Moderately high and high vulnerability zones of disaster-bearing bodies were primarily distributed in the main urban area of Fuzhou City and the southeastern coastal towns, demonstrating strong spatial correlation with the concentration of population, economy, and buildings.(3) The risk of typhoon disasters in Fuzhou City generally exhibited a pattern of “high in the east and low in the west”. As the level of return period increased, disaster risks escalated from the northeastern and southeastern coastal areas to inland areas. The risks in the main urban area of Fuzhou City, Changle District, Luoyuan County, and Fuqing City were higher than other regions.(4) Under the conditions of extreme disasters(such as 1 000-year return period), medium-high and high-risk zones were mainly concentrated in the northeast, southeast, and main urban area of Fuzhou City, accounting for 34.5% of the total area of the city. [Conclusion] The risk of typhoon disasters in Fuzhou City generally exhibits a pattern of “high in the east and low in the west”. As the level of return period increases, the disaster risk gradually intensifies from the northeastern and southeastern coastal areas to inland areas. Under the conditions of extreme disasters(such as 1 000-year return period), medium-high and high-risk zones are mainly distributed in the northeast, southeast, and main urban area of Fuzhou City.

关键词

台风 / 灾害风险 / 复合灾害 / Copula函数 / 福州市 / 气候变化 / 降水 / 风险评估

Key words

typhoon / disaster risk / compound disaster / Copula function / Fuzhou City / climate change / precipitation / risk assessment

基金资助

国家自然科学基金项目“东南沿海山地丘陵区暖季暴雨时空异质性及其致洪效应”(42271030)

福建省科技厅杰青项目“全球升温1. 5 ℃ ~3 ℃情景下福建复合极端气候事件的致灾风险预估”(2022J06018)

福建省“雏鹰计划”青年拔尖人才计划