基于CMIP6的低影响开发雨水排放系统的气候适应力优化

杨健平; 张质明; 王懿雯; 赵志勇

doi:10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2025.06.010

水利水电技术（中英文） ›› 2025, Vol. 56 ›› Issue (6) : 111 -122. DOI: 10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2025.06.010

城市防洪排涝专栏

基于CMIP6的低影响开发雨水排放系统的气候适应力优化

杨健平 ¹^,² ,
张质明 ¹^,² ,
王懿雯 ¹^,² ,
赵志勇 ³

作者信息 +

Optimization of climate adaptability for low-impact development stormwater drainage systems based on CMIP6

Jianping YANG ¹^,² ,
Zhiming ZHANG ¹^,² ,
Yiwen WANG ¹^,² ,
Zhiyong ZHAO ³

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文章历史 +

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摘要

【目的】随着全球气候变化的加剧，极端降雨事件的频率和强度显著增加，传统城市雨水排放系统在应对极端降雨时常常力不从心，为缓解气候变化带来的建成区内涝风险，提出一种基于CMIP6模式预估结果的低影响开发雨水排放系统的气候适应力优化方法。【方法】以九江市某片区为例，综合各模式泰勒图评分和年际变率评分筛选出最佳CMIP6(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6)降雨模式预估情景，结合降雨情景，借助NSGA-Ⅱ对SWMM模型进行多目标优化，依据帕累托最优结果对LID设施规模进行优化。【结果】结果显示：三种模式预测结果在不同未来气候情景下都将会产生更多的降雨，其中FGOALS-g3在未来降雨预测中模拟出的年总降雨量和日降雨量最多且具有更大的不确定性；随着LID设施的投资成本逐渐增加，径流量和溢流节点数可以得到有效控制，LID设施中等投资方案成本为260.27万元，径流量削减21.55%,最大投资方案519.58万元，径流量削减25.00%,溢流节点数分别减少14.12%和18.82%;与原始条件下相比，中等投资方案和最大投资方案的洪峰径流量分别降至0.64 m³/s和0.62 m³/s,约为原始的86.49%和83.71%。【结论】结果表明：未来气候变化下，极端降雨事件为城市内涝带来更大压力；通过对模拟结果的分析，LID设施中等投资和最大投资方案均有效控制了径流量与溢流节点数量，表明优化策略在应对未来极端降雨的情景下是有效的，可为类似建成区的内涝风险管理和适应性规划提供参考。

Abstract

[Objective] With the intensification of global climate change, the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events have significantly increased, often overwhelming traditional urban stormwater drainage systems. To mitigate the risks of urban flooding under changing climate conditions, a climate adaptation optimization method for low-impact development(LID) stormwater drainage systems was proposed, based on projections from the CMIP6(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) models. [Methods] Taking a district in Jiujiang City as a case study, the optimal CMIP6 rainfall projection scenario was selected by integrating Taylor diagram scores and interannual variability scores from various models. These rainfall scenarios were then used for multi-objective optimization of the SWMM(Storm Water Management Model) with NSGA-II(Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II). The scale of the LID facilities was optimized based on Pareto optimal result. [Results] The findings indicated that all three models predict increased rainfall under various future climate scenarios, with FGOALS-g3 simulating the highest total annual rainfall and daily rainfall, along with greater uncertainty. As investment in LID facilities increased, both runoff volume and the number of overflow nodes were effectively controlled. The moderate investment scenario, costing 2.602 7 million yuan, reduced runoff by 21.55%, while the maximum investment scenario, costing 5.195 8 million yuan, reduced runoff by 25.00%. The number of overflow nodes decreased by 14.12% and 18.82%, respectively. Compared to the baseline conditions, the peak runoff under the moderate and maximum investment scenarios was reduced to 0.64 m³/s and 0.62 m³/s, accounting for approximately 86.49% and 83.71% of the original values, respectively. [Conclusion] The result demonstrate that future climate change will place greater pressure on urban flooding due to extreme rainfall events. Analysis of the simulation result indicates that both the moderate and maximum investment LID facility plans effectively control runoff volume and the number of overflow nodes. This suggests that the optimization strategy is effective in addressing future extreme rainfall impacts. The method provides a valuable reference for flood risk management and adaptive urban planning in similar built-up areas.