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摘要
【目的】水资源优化调配是提高水资源综合利用效率的关键所在,旨在实现水资源利用总体效益最大化和最优化的目标。【方法】针对具有灌区灌溉任务的水库的水资源调配计划制定问题,提出了以水库调度期内综合效益最大、期末蓄水效益最大、弃水量最小为目标的水资源优化调配模型,构建了期末蓄水效益函数,并将多目标模型转化为单目标模型,采用遗传算法进行求解。以湖北省漳河水库灌区为例,基于需水预测模型分析生活、工业以及灌区侧需水,考虑水库调度期末来水不确定性建立期末蓄水效益关系,利用水资源优化调配模型实现水资源优化调配。【结果】结果显示:所提出的方法综合效益更高,基于2024年的需水预测结果和在不同降雨频率P=25%、50%、75%条件下,与调度图法调度相比,水库综合效益分别提高61万元、30万元、13万元,期末水位分别降低1.9 m、降低0.85 m、抬高0.25 m。【结论】结果表明:采用期末蓄水效益量化表示调度期结束后未来一段时间来水量不确定带来的综合效益风险在水资源优化调度中的重要作用,实现水库灌区最大经济效益目标的水库调度期内水资源优化配置,指导水库调度期末水位设置,从水源侧提高水资源综合利用效率。
Abstract
[Objective] The optimization and allocation of water resources was proven to be crucial in enhancing the overall efficiency of water utilization, aiming to maximize and optimize the overall benefits of water resource utilization. [Methods] Facing the challenge of formulating water allocation plans for reservoirs with irrigation tasks in irrigation districts, a water resources optimization and allocation model was proposed, targeting maximized comprehensive benefits during the reservoir operation period, maximized storage benefits at the end of the period, and minimized water discards. A benefit function for end-of-period storage was constructed, and the multi-objective problem was transformed into a single-objective model, which was then solved using the genetic algorithm. Taking the Zhanghe Reservoir Irrigation District in Hubei Province as a past example, the model was utilized, based on a water demand forecasting model, to analyze domestic, industrial, and irrigation water demands. Considering the uncertainty of inflow at the end of the reservoir operation period, a relationship for end-of-period storage benefits was established. The model then facilitated the optimal allocation of water resources. [Results] The result revealed that the proposed method had yielded higher overall benefits. Based on water demand predictions for the year 2024 and under different rainfall frequencies(P=25%, 50%, 75%), compared to the reservoir operation chart method that had been used, the comprehensive benefits of the reservoir were increased by 610,000 yuan, 300,000 yuan, and 130,000 yuan, respectively, under different rainfall frequencies of P=25%, 50%, and 75%. Meanwhile, the end-of-period water levels were lowered by 1.9 m, 0.85 m, and raised by 0.25 m, respectively. [Conclusion] The quantification of end-of-period storage benefits, which represent the risk of comprehensive benefits arising from uncertainty in future inflows after the operation period, played a significant role in water resources optimization. This approach enabled the optimal allocation of water resources during the reservoir operation period to achieve maximum economic benefits in the reservoir-irrigation district system. It also guided the setting of end-of-period water levels, thereby enhancing the overall efficiency of water utilization from the water source perspective.
关键词
需水预测
/
期末蓄水效益
/
多目标
/
水资源优化调度
/
水资源
/
水库
/
径流
/
不确定性
Key words
water demand forecasting
/
end-of-period water storage benefits
/
multi-target
/
optimal dispatch of water resources
/
water resources
/
reservoir
/
runoff
/
uncertainty
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张恒飞,申乾倩,王帅,王源楠,刘康.
考虑期末蓄水效益的水库灌区水资源调配研究[J].
水利水电技术(中英文), 2025, 56(6): 123-132 DOI:10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2025.06.011
基金资助
国家重点研发计划(YFC1510805)
国家重点研发计划(YFC1508603)