流域模拟器在数字流域建设及水电预报调度能力提升中的应用与展望

夏军; 骆文广; 佘敦先; 唐国强; 叶汀

doi:10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2025.07.001

水利水电技术（中英文） ›› 2025, Vol. 56 ›› Issue (7) : 1 -12. DOI: 10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2025.07.001

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流域模拟器在数字流域建设及水电预报调度能力提升中的应用与展望

夏军 ¹^,² ,
骆文广 ¹^,² ,
佘敦先 ¹^,² ,
唐国强 ¹^,² ,
叶汀 ¹

作者信息 +

Applications and prospects of river basin simulators in digital river basin development and hydropower forecasting and scheduling enhancement

Jun XIA ¹^,² ,
Wenguang LUO ¹^,² ,
Dunxian SHE ¹^,² ,
Guoqiang TANG ¹^,² ,
Ting YE ¹

Author information +

文章历史 +

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摘要

【目的】为全面提升我国在流域尺度下水电预报与调度的能力，亟需加快推进以水系统科学为理论基础的数字流域体系建设，其中“流域模拟器”作为核心支撑工具发挥着日益重要的作用。【方法】依托长江流域的典型应用实践，围绕水系统科学与流域模拟技术在水利水电调度管理及极端水文事件应对中的关键价值，系统论述了“长江模拟器”(典型流域模拟器平台)的研发背景、技术体系与工程应用成效。该平台集成水文监测、实时感知与模型耦合等核心技术，构建覆盖多尺度的流域水系统的动态模拟与预报体系，实现对复杂流域水文演变过程的模拟与预判。【结果】实际应用表明，流域模拟器能够通过观测与多模式耦合显著提升中长期水文预报的时空分辨率和增加减少不确定性的系统模拟能力，增强水库群多目标优化调度策略的科学性与响应时效，尤其在应对极端洪涝与干旱等突发水文事件中展现出有效的决策支持和风险防控能力。【结论】中国的应用实践表明，流域模拟器驱动下的数字流域建设能够提升水文预报与水库群联合调度的精度与协同效率，在应对极端水文变化环境下展现系统的适应性与运行韧性。展望未来，应聚焦不断变化的环境下水系统演变与不确定性等挑战，推进复杂“河-库”水系统模拟器的集成研发，深化多目标水库群优化调度大模型的体系构建，强化跨部门协同机制与关键技术的联合攻关，不断推动流域模拟器在数字流域体系中的深入应用与能力跃升。

Abstract

[Objective] To comprehensively enhance the capacity for hydropower forecasting and scheduling at the scale of a river basin in China, it is imperative to accelerate the development of digital river basin systems based on the theoretical foundation of water system science, in which the “river basin simulator” plays an increasingly important role as a core supporting tool. [Methods] Based on typical application practices in the Yangtze River Basin, the research and development background, technical system, and engineering application outcomes of the “Yangtze River Simulator”(a representative river basin simulator platform) were systematically elaborated, focusing on the key value of water system science and river basin simulation technologies in hydropower scheduling management and in response to extreme hydrological events. The platform integrated core technologies including hydrological monitoring, real-time sensing, and model coupling, through which a multi-scale dynamic simulation and forecasting system for basin water systems was established, enabling simulation and prediction of complex river basin hydrological evolution processes. [Results] Practical applications showed that the river basin simulator could significantly improve the spatiotemporal resolution and the system simulation ability to reduce uncertainties through observation and multi-mode in medium-and long-term hydrological forecasting, while enhancing the scientific validity and response efficiency of multi-objective reservoir group optimized scheduling strategies. Notably, they demonstrated effective capabilities in decision support and risk prevention, especially when addressing sudden hydrological events such as extreme floods and droughts. [Conclusion] China's practical experience indicates that digital river basin development driven by river basin simulators can improve the accuracy of hydrological forecasting and the coordination efficiency of joint reservoir scheduling, and demonstrating system adaptability and operational resilience under extreme hydrological change conditions. Looking ahead, future efforts should focus on addressing challenges such as water system evolution and uncertainties driven by the constantly changing environment. The integrated development of complex “river-reservoir” system simulators should be promoted, and the system construction of multi-objective reservoir group optimized scheduling large models should be deepened. Furthermore, cross-sectoral coordination mechanisms and joint efforts in key technologies should be strengthened, and the in-depth application and capacity improvement of river basin simulators within the digital river basin system should be continuously advanced.