黄河上游径流年际变化规律及丰枯统计特征

黄静; 李想; 沈延青; 包娟; 刘靖; 魏加华; 王战策

doi:10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2025.07.012

水利水电技术（中英文） ›› 2025, Vol. 56 ›› Issue (7) : 165 -176. DOI: 10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2025.07.012

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黄河上游径流年际变化规律及丰枯统计特征

黄静 ¹ ,
李想 ¹^,² ,
沈延青 ³ ,
包娟 ²^,⁴ ,
刘靖 ³ ,
魏加华 ¹^,⁵ ,
王战策 ³

作者信息 +

Interannual runoff variation and statistical characteristics of wet and dry years in upper reaches of Yellow River

Jing HUANG ¹ ,
Xiang LI ¹^,² ,
Yanqing SHEN ³ ,
Juan BAO ²^,⁴ ,
Jing LIU ³ ,
Jiahua WEI ¹^,⁵ ,
Zhance WANG ³

Author information +

文章历史 +

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摘要

【目的】黄河上游水量和库容占全流域的近2/3和4/5,是流域主要产水区和径流年际调蓄区。然而，长期以来径流年际变异大且难以准确预测，制约了上游水库工程“蓄丰补枯”效益发挥和水资源安全保障。【方法】为进一步增强对径流的认知，搜集了黄河干流主要断面1956—2022年还原径流(唐乃亥、兰州、利津)以及1736—1911年考古径流(青铜峡),采用Copula函数、非一致性检验等多元统计方法，探究了上游对全流域径流贡献度、上游径流年际变化规律以及丰枯统计特征。【结果】研究表明，兰州与全流域径流丰平枯同步概率71.5%,其中同枯和同丰发生概率分别为32.2%和20.3%。兰州断面单年枯水和丰水发生概率分别为43.3%和26.9%,其中特丰发生概率为7.5%,研究期未发生特枯；两年连枯和连丰发生概率分别为19.7%和12.1%,三年连枯和连丰发生概率分别为7.7%和4.6%;丰枯转移发生概率为16.7%。【结论】为有效应对特丰特枯、连丰连枯不利影响，一方面须提升径流长期预测水平并充分挖潜龙羊峡水库年际调蓄能力，另一方面须加快构建黄河流域“一线七库”水网工程体系。

Abstract

[Objective] The upper reaches of the Yellow River contribute approximately two-thirds of the water volume of the entire river basin and four-fifths of its reservoir storage capacity, serving as the major water-producing area and interannual runoff regulation area for the river basin. However, the significant interannual variation of runoff and its difficulties in accurate prediction have constrained the effectiveness of reservoirs in the upper reaches in “storing water in wet years to compensate for dry years” and undermined the security of water resources. [Methods] To further enhance the understanding of runoff, naturalized runoff data at major cross-sections along the Yellow River's mainstream from 1956 to 2022(Tangnaihai, Lanzhou, Lijin) and archaeological runoff data from 1736 to 1911(Qingtongxia) were collected. Multivariate statistical method such as Copula function and non-consistency tests were employed to explore the contribution of the upper reaches to the runoff of the entire river basin, interannual variation patterns of runoff in the upper reaches, and statistical characteristics of wet and dry years. [Results] The synchronous probability of wet, normal, and dry years of runoff at the Lanzhou cross-section and the entire river basin was 71.5%, with the probabilities of coincident dry or wet years being 32.2% and 20.3%, respectively. The probabilities of single dry or wet year at the Lanzhou cross-section were 43.3% and 26.9%, respectively. Specifically, the probability of an extremely wet year was 7.5%, with no extremely dry year observed during the study period. The probabilities of two consecutive dry or wet years were 19.7% and 12.1%, respectively, while three consecutive dry or wet years showed probabilities of 7.7% and 4.6%, respectively. The probability of transition between wet and dry years was 16.7%. [Conclusion] To effectively cope with the adverse effects of extremely wet or dry years, as well as consecutive wet or dry years, it is imperative to improve the long-term runoff prediction capabilities while fully leveraging the interannual regulation capacity of the Longyangxia Reservoir, and to accelerate the construction of the “one-route and seven-reservoir” water network system in the Yellow River Basin.