基于系统动力学的山西省水资源生态足迹核算与预测

Ecological footprint accounting and prediction of water resources in Shanxi Province based on system dynamics

摘要

【目的】在自然和人为因素的双重驱动下，山西省水资源可持续利用问题将愈发严重。因此，科学预测山西省水资源生态足迹的发展趋势对该省水资源可持续利用具有重要的意义。【方法】利用水资源生态足迹法和系统动力学法建立山西省水资源可持续利用系统动力学模型，根据参数灵敏度测试结果设计4种情景(包括现状延续型DS1、经济发展型DS2、节水防污型DS3、综合发展型DS4),预测2023—2050年山西省水资源可持续利用水平与程度。【结果】结果表明：在预测期内，4种情景的人均水资源生态足迹与生态承载力均呈增长态势，但前者平均值是后者平均值的4.850倍以上，从而导致水资源亏损的出现。万元GDP水资源生态足迹均呈逐年递减态势，表明水资源利用率得到有效的提升，但水资源生态压力指数结果表明研究区水资源利用压力仍过大，处于不可持续利用局面。Tapio脱钩模型预测显示水资源生态足迹与经济发展之间的关系大多数年份下处于协调可持续发展状态。【结论】经过综合比较，情景DS4是最适宜研究区的未来情景，各项发展指标有利于推动山西省社会经济与水资源可持续发展，但在未来的用水过程中，需优化用水结构、提高各行业用水效率、加强全社会节水意识，才能促进研究区水资源可持续利用。

Abstract

[Objective] The issue of sustainable utilization of water resources in Shanxi Province is expected to become increasingly severe under the combined influence of natural and human factors. Therefore, accurate prediction of the development trend of the water resources ecological footprint in the province is essential for ensuring sustainable utilization of water resources. [Methods] A system dynamics model for the sustainable utilization of water resources in Shanxi Province was established using the water resources ecological footprint method and system dynamics method. Four scenarios were designed based on the result of parameter sensitivity analysis: continuation of the status quo(DS1), economic development(DS2), water conservation and pollution prevention(DS3), and comprehensive development(DS4). These scenarios were used to predict the level and degree of sustainable utilization of water resources in Shanxi Province from 2023 to 2050. [Results] The result showed that both the per capita water resources ecological footprint and the ecological carrying capacity in the four scenarios exhibited an increasing trend during the forecast period. However, the average value of the ecological footprint was more than 4.850 times that of the ecological carrying capacity, leading to a water resources deficit. The water resources ecological footprint per 10⁴ RMB of GDP showed a decreasing trend over the years, indicating an effective improvement in water resources utilization efficiency. Despite this, the result of the ecological pressure index of water resources indicated that the pressure on water resources consumption remained high in the study area, and the current utilization was unsustainable. Predictions using the Tapio decoupling model indicated that the relationship between the water resources ecological footprint and economic development remained coordinated and sustainable in most years. [Conclusion] Through comprehensive comparison, scenario DS4 is identified as the most suitable future scenario for the study area. The development indicators associated with this scenario are conducive to promoting the sustainable development of both the socio-economic environment and water resources in Shanxi Province. However, for future water consumption, it is necessary to optimize the water consumption structure, improve water consumption efficiency across industries, and strengthen water conservation awareness across society to promote the sustainable utilization of water resources in the study area.

关键词

水资源供需矛盾 / 水资源生态足迹法 / 系统动力学法 / 情景分析 / 山西省 / 影响因素

Key words

conflict between water resources supply and demand / water resources ecological footprint method / system dynamics method / scenario analysis / Shanxi Province / influencing factors

基金资助

国家自然科学基金(52039003)