滚动预报优化调度模式下水库防洪和发电效益分析

黎良辉; 曹志明; 万迪文; 何中政; 李邦浩; 兰芳

doi:10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2025.08.014

水利水电技术（中英文） ›› 2025, Vol. 56 ›› Issue (8) : 192 -203. DOI: 10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2025.08.014

运行管理

滚动预报优化调度模式下水库防洪和发电效益分析

黎良辉 ¹^,² ,
曹志明 ¹^,² ,
万迪文 ³ ,
何中政 ¹^,² ,
李邦浩 ¹^,² ,
兰芳 ¹^,²

作者信息 +

Analysis of factors affecting flood control and power generation under reservoir rolling forecasting optimized operation

Lianghui LI ¹^,² ,
Zhiming CAO ¹^,² ,
Diwen WAN ³ ,
Zhongzheng HE ¹^,² ,
Banghao LI ¹^,² ,
Fang LAN ¹^,²

Author information +

文章历史 +

PDF

摘要

【目的】水库调度是目前水资源综合利用的重要非工程措施。近年来，随着水文预报技术水平的提升，结合水文预报开展水库优化调度日渐受到关注。然而水库滚动预报优化调度下防洪和发电效益影响机制尚不明晰。【方法】针对此问题，研究建立了水库滚动预报优化调度模型，采用控制变量法分析了不同的洪水量级、预见期和汛期水位动态控制上限对水库防洪和发电效益的影响，以峡江水库为对象开展实例研究。【结果】结果表明：(1)水库洪水削峰率随汛期水位动态控制上限增加呈现逐渐减小的趋势；(2)水库发电量随着汛期水位动态控制上限的增高而增大，同时最大下泄流量也在增加；(3)洪水量级越大，水库调度达到最大削峰效果所需预见期逐渐减少；(4)考虑预报不确定性和确定性来水条件下的防洪滚动预报优化调度结果差别较小。【结论】综上所述，在水库防洪滚动预报优化调度模式下，洪水量级、预见期和汛期水位动态控制上限对水库防洪和发电效益影响存在规律，结合可靠的预报信息，提高水库汛限水位在风险可控的前提下能够提高发电效益。以50 a一遇洪水为例，当预见期为72 h时，汛期水位动态控制上限为43.5 m与46 m条件相比，平均削峰率仅仅提高0.46%(约104 m³/s),但平均发电量减少30.55%(约1 555.57万kWh)。

Abstract

[Objective] Reservoir scheduling is an important non engineering measure for the comprehensive utilization of water resources at present. In recent years, with the improvement of hydrological forecasting technology, the reservoir optimal operation combined with hydrological forecasting has received increasing attention. However, the impact mechanism of flood control and power generation benefits under the reservoir rolling forecasting optimized operation is still unclear. [Methods] In response to this issue, a rolling forecast optimization scheduling model for reservoir flood control was established, and the control variable method was used to analyze the impact of different flood levels, forecast periods, and dynamic control upper limits of flood season water levels on reservoir flood control and power generation benefits taking Xiajiang Reservoir as a case. [Results] The results show that:(1) The peak shaving rate of floods gradually decreases with the increase of the upper limit of dynamic control of water level during flood season.(2) The power generation of the reservoir increases with the increase of the upper limit of the dynamic control of water level during the flood season, and the maximum discharge flow also increases.(3) The larger the magnitude of the flood, the shorter the forecast period required for reservoir operation to achieve maximum peak shaving effect.(4) The difference in the optimization scheduling result of flood control rolling forecasting under uncertain and deterministic inflow conditions is relatively small. [Conclusion] In summary, under the reservoir rolling forecasting optimized operation, there are patterns in the impact of flood magnitude, forecast period, and dynamic control upper limit of flood season water level on flood control and power generation. Combined with reliable forecast information, raising the flood season water level limit of the reservoir can improve power generation efficiency under the premise of controllable risk. Taking a 50-year design flood and the forecast period is 72 hours as an example, compared with the upper limit of dynamic control of water level during flood season being 46 m, when the upper limit is set at 43.5 m, the average peak shaving rate only increases by 0.46%(about 104 m³/s), but the average power generation decreases by 30.55%(about 15.56 million kWh).