基于模糊聚类软划分法的广东省典型流域设计雨型研究

左斌斌; 谭超; 程涛; 钟伟强; 刘志敏; 李泽君

doi:10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2025.09.008

水利水电技术（中英文） ›› 2025, Vol. 56 ›› Issue (9) : 108 -117. DOI: 10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2025.09.008

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基于模糊聚类软划分法的广东省典型流域设计雨型研究

左斌斌 ¹^,²^,³ ,
谭超 ¹^,²^,³ ,
程涛 ¹^,²^,³ ,
钟伟强 ¹^,²^,³ ,
刘志敏 ¹^,²^,³ ,
李泽君 ¹^,²^,³

作者信息 +

Research on design rainfall patterns of typical river basins in Guangdong Province based on fuzzy clustering soft partition method

Binbin ZUO ¹^,²^,³ ,
Chao TAN ¹^,²^,³ ,
Tao CHENG ¹^,²^,³ ,
Weiqiang ZHONG ¹^,²^,³ ,
Zhiming LIU ¹^,²^,³ ,
Zejun LI ¹^,²^,³

Author information +

文章历史 +

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摘要

【目的】设计雨型作为无资料地区计算设计洪水的重要组成部分之一，对设计洪水的洪峰流量和时程分配具有显著影响。随着气候变化的影响，原有的雨型可能发生变化，需要通过延长水文序列，来进一步研究雨型的变化情况。【方法】采用Mann-Kendall趋势检验法和模糊聚类软划分法，选取广东省内的4个典型流域，涉及12个雨量站点的年最大24 h和72 h的降雨过程作为研究对象。基于指标体系构建模糊等价矩阵，运用模糊聚类法计算得出不同历时下的设计雨型。【结果】结果表明：年最大24 h和72 h的降雨量在洞冠水流域呈现出增加的趋势，白芒站年最大24 h降雨量变化速率最大，为0.96 mm/a;而在榕江北河流域则呈现出减少的趋势，富口站年最大72 h降雨量变化速率为-1.25 mm/a。同时，各典型流域的设计雨型均呈现出复合型雨峰的特点，且主雨峰在总降雨量中的占比没有明显差异，主要不同体现在降雨的时程分配上。【结论】与《广东省暴雨径流查算图表使用手册》中的设计雨型相比，主雨峰的控制时段发生了改变。研究结果不仅可为典型流域的设计洪水计算提供有价值的参考，同时也为无资料地区的暴雨雨型研究提供思路。

Abstract

[Objective] Designing rainfall patterns serves as a crucial component in calculating design floods for ungauged basins, significantly influencing peak flow rates and temporal distribution of design floods. Given the impacts of climate change, existing rainfall patterns may alter, necessitating the extension of hydrology data to further investigate these changes. [Methods] This study adopts the Mann-Kendall trend test and fuzzy clustering soft partition method, selecting 12 rainfall stations within four typical watersheds in Guangdong Province, focusing on their annual maximum 24-hour and 72-hour rainfall processes. Based on an index system, a fuzzy equivalence matrix is constructed, and the design rainfall patterns under different durations are derived using fuzzy clustering. [Results] The results indicate that annual maximum 24-hour and 72-hour rainfall in the Dongguan River Basin exhibits an increasing trend, with Baimang meteorological station showing the highest rate of change at 0.96 mm/a for annual maximum 24-hour rainfall. Conversely, a decreasing trend is observed in the Rongjiang North River Basin, with Fukou meteorological station experiencing a rate of change of-1.25 mm/a for annual maximum 72-hour rainfall. Furthermore, the design rainfall patterns in all typical basins exhibit composite peak characteristics, with no significant difference in the proportion of the main rain peak in total rainfall. The primary difference lies in the temporal distribution of rainfall. [Conclusion] Compared with the design rainfall patterns outlined in the “Rainstorm Runoff Calculation Chart Manual of Guangdong Province”, the control period of the main peak was shifted. This research not only provides valuable references for design flood calculations in typical watersheds but also offers insights into the study of rainstorm patterns in ungauged regions.