莫莫格湿地生态需水量估算与补水调控
Estimation of ecological water demands and water replenishment regulation for Momoge Wetland
【目的】目前莫莫格湿地缺乏对湿地整体规模的研究，尤其缺乏对年内不同时期生态需水变化的考虑。针对莫莫格湿地整体构建了包含5项指标的湿地生态需水指标体系的估算框架。【方法】在建立湿地生态需水指标体系的基础上，运用生态功能法估算了莫莫格湿地3个等级、3个时段生态需水量。并运用GM灰度模型预测了不同丰枯遭遇情景下莫莫格湿地面积，确定了莫莫格湿地变化下的补水方案。【结果】莫莫格湿地最大、适宜、最小生态需水量分别为24.14×108 m3、16.65×108 m3、10.88×108 m3;越冬期、繁殖期、汛期三个时段的需水量分别为1.92×108 m3、5.39×108 m3、8.73×108 m3;基于不同丰枯遭遇情景下的湿地面积预测，莫莫格湿地在枯-枯-枯、枯-枯-平、枯-平-枯和平-平-平四种丰枯遭遇情景下所需的补水量分别为0.70×108 m3、0.49×108 m3、0.68×108 m3和0.36×108 m3。【结论】在枯水年份，现有补水工程不能完全满足莫莫格湿地蓄水量，迫切需要开展多水源补水的方式实现补水量效提升。研究结果可用于莫莫格湿地年尺度和年内尺度补水方案与多水源调控，从而提高区域水资源利用效率，保障湿地生态系统的稳定性。
[Objective] Currently, research on the overall scale of the Momoge Wetland remains limited, especially the lack of consideration of the variations in ecological water demand across different periods within a year. To address this, an estimation framework for the wetland ecological water demand indicator system, consisting of five indicators, is developed for Momoge Wetland. [Methods] Based on the established ecological water demand indicator system, the ecological function method was employed to estimate the ecological water demand of Momoge Wetland across three levels and for three time periods. Moreover, the Grey Model(GM) was utilized to predict the wetland area under various hydrological scenarios of water abundance and water scarcity, thereby determining the water replenishment schemes in response to wetland changes of Momoge Wetland. [Results] The result showed that the maximum, suitable, and minimum ecological water demands of Momoge Wetland were 24.14×108 m3, 16.65×108 m3, and 10.88×108 m3, respectively. The water demands for the overwintering period, breeding period, and flood season were 1.92×108 m3, 5.39×108 m3, and 8.73×108 m3, respectively. Based on the predicted wetland area under different scenarios of water abundance and scarcity, the required water replenishment volumes for Momoge Wetland under the four scenarios — dry-dry-dry, dry-dry-normal, dry-normal-dry, and normal-normal-normal — were 0.70×108 m3, 0.49×108 m3, 0.68×108 m3, and 0.36×108 m3, respectively. [Conclusion] In years of water scarcity, existing water replenishment projects fail to meet the water storage requirements of the Momoge Wetland, highlighting the urgent need to implement multi-source water replenishment method to enhance water replenishment efficiency. The calculation result of this study can inform annual and within-year water replenishment schemes and multi-source water regulation for the Momoge Wetland, thereby improving the efficiency of regional water resource utilization and ensuring the stability of the wetland ecosystem.
生态需水 / 生态补水 / 需水等级 / 指标体系 / 莫莫格湿地 / 影响因素
ecological water demand / ecological water replenishment / water demand classification / indicator system / Momoge Wetland / influencing factors
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