基于社会-生态系统理论的水库移民生计转型影响因素研究

Influencing factors of livelihood transformation among reservoir resettlers based on social-ecological systems theory

摘要

【目的】水利水电工程建设引发的移民生计问题已成为全球性挑战的重要议题，对水库移民生计转型的关键因素及驱动路径开展研究，有助于精准靶向施策、实现水库移民共同富裕。【方法】基于社会-生态系统理论，研究方法采用多元有序Logistic回归模型与模糊集定性比较分析方法，对1092份水库移民调查数据进行实证分析。【结果】结果显示：(1)样本中仅有17.6%的移民是生计多样类型，且产业发展是关键影响因素。(2)在1%的显著性水平下，政策制度、治理建设、产业发展、生产条件、资源条件及自然环境对生计转型具有显著正向影响，回归系数分别为1.573、2.558、3.822、2.854、0.613和2.043。(3)各条件变量的必要性分析结果都低于临界值0.9,表明生计转型效果依赖于社会、经济与生态系统的动态匹配，单一要素难以独立发挥作用，且水库移民生计转型的组态路径可以分为治产融合型、生态经济型、社会-生产协同型、政策治理型四类。【结论】研究成果实证了社会-生态系统对水库移民生计转型的重要作用，推动各要素优化组合是促成转型结果的有效路径。基于此，在实现水库移民共同富裕的进程中，建议加大移民生计转型扶持力度，坚持因地制宜和精准帮扶，匹配区域资源禀赋与移民需求。

Abstract

[Objective] The livelihood issues of reservoir resettlers arising from the construction of water conservancy and hydropower projects have become an important global challenge. Researching the key factors and driving pathways of livelihood transformation helps formulate precise and targeted policies and promote the realization of common prosperity for reservoir resettlers. [Methods] Based on the social-ecological systems theory, an empirical analysis was conducted on survey data collected from 1 092 reservoir resettlers using a multivariate ordinal Logistic regression model and fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis. [Results] (1) Among the samples, only 17.6 % of the resettlers had diversified livelihoods, and industrial development was the key influencing factor.(2) At the 1% significance level, policy frameworks, governance capacity, industrial development, production conditions, resource endowments, and the natural environment were all found to have significant positive effects on livelihood transformation, with regression coefficients of 1.573, 2.558, 3.822, 2.854, 0.613, and 2.043, respectively.(3) The necessity analysis result of each condition variable were below the critical threshold of 0.90, indicating that the effectiveness of livelihood transformation depended on the dynamic alignment of social, economic, and ecological systems. A single factor could not independently drive transformation, and the configuration pathways for livelihood transformation among reservoir resettlers could be divided into four types: governance-production integration, eco-economic synergy, social-production synergy and policy governance. [Conclusion] The findings empirically confirm the important role of social-ecological systems in the livelihood transformation of reservoir resettlers. Optimizing the combination of key elements is an effective pathway to achieve positive transformation outcomes. Based on this, in the process of achieving common prosperity for reservoir resettlers, it is recommended to strengthen support for livelihood transformation, adhere to tailored and targeted assistance, and match regional resource endowments with the needs of reservoir resettlers.

关键词

生计转型 / 水库移民 / 多元有序Logistic回归 / 模糊集定性比较分析 / 社会-生态系统理论 / 影响因素 / 驱动路径

Key words

livelihood transformation / reservoir resettlers / multivariate ordinal Logistic regression / fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis / social-ecological systems theory / influencing factors / driving path

基金资助

国家自然科学基金项目(72271091)