基于风险传递网络的台风风暴潮灾害链风险评价

Risk assessment for the typhoon-storm surge-flood-dike burst disaster chain based on risk-transmission network

摘要

【目的】近年来台风袭击沿海地区事件发生频繁，造成了严重的人员伤亡、经济损失和环境破坏。因此，探究易发型台风灾害链的形成机制及风险评价方法，以期为近海城市防洪防潮工作提供科学支撑。【方法】针对典型的“台风-风暴潮-洪水-溃堤”灾害链，选取1999—2022年台风灾情数据，基于各灾种之间风险传递响应规律建立台风风暴潮灾害链的风险传递网络结构，在此基础上使用贝叶斯理论构建台风风暴潮灾害链风险评价模型，并在广东省珠海市、中山市、江门市和佛山市开展应用研究，模拟分析发生三种典型台风场景下的灾害链风险分布。【结果】结果显示：近海地区发生台风风暴潮灾害链的风险高于内陆地区，在情况最不利台风场景下(当发生16级风力以上且登陆型台风时),研究区“高”“中”风险区总面积占比达到29.9%,其中“高”风险区主要集中在珠海市、中山市的东部地区，“中”风险区主要分布在佛山市中东部、江门市南部。【结论】结果表明：在不同台风场景下，台风强度改变对风暴潮、溃堤的影响程度大于洪水，而台风路径改变对洪水、溃堤的影响程度大于风暴潮。研究成果可为粤港澳大湾区防灾减灾能力建设提供一定的参考借鉴价值。

Abstract

[Objective] In recent years, frequent typhoon strikes on coastal areas have caused severe casualties, economic losses and environmental degradation. Therefore, it is important to explore the formation mechanism and risk assessment of the easily occurring typhoon disaster chain to provide scientific support for flood control and tide prevention in coastal cities. [Methods] Focus is paid on a typical “typhoon-storm surge-flood-dike burst”(TSFD) disaster chain event, conducting an evolution analysis of the disaster chain mechanism based on the risk transmission and response among various disasters. A risk transmission network structure is established for the TSFD disaster chain, and a risk assessment model for the TSFD disaster chain is constructed using Bayesian theory. This model is applied in Zhuhai, Zhongshan, Jiangmen, and Foshan in Guangdong Province to simulate and analyze the distribution of TSFD disaster chain risk under the three typical typhoon scenarios. [Results] The result show that coastal areas are at higher risk of TSFD disaster chain than inland regions. When a landing-type typhoon with a wind force above Category 16 occurs, the total area of “high” and “medium” risk zones in the study area accounts for 29.9% of the total, with “high” risk zones mainly concentrating in the coastal areas of Zhuhai and Zhongshan, and “medium” risk zones mainly distributing in the east-central part of Foshan and the southern part of Jiangmen. [Conclusion] The result indicate that: under different typhoon scenarios, typhoon intensity change has a greater impact on storm surge and dike burst than flood, while the impact of typhoon path change on flood and dike burst is greater than that of storm surge. Research result can provide valuable references for the disaster prevention and mitigation capacity building in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area.

关键词

台风风暴潮 / 灾害链 / 风险评价 / 贝叶斯网络 / 广东省 / 气候变化 / 城市防洪 / 降雨

Key words

typhoon storm surge / disaster chain / risk assessment / Bayesian network / Guangdong Province / climate change / urban flood control / rainfall

基金资助

国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFC3001000)

国家自然科学基金青年基金项目(52209042)

国家自然科学基金项目(52079143)