基于局部和全局方法的SWMM模型参数敏感性分析

施奇妙; 徐宗学; 卢兴超; 张萍; 吴献平

doi:10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2025.10.005

水利水电技术（中英文） ›› 2025, Vol. 56 ›› Issue (10) : 58 -71. DOI: 10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2025.10.005

复杂灾害链与水旱巨灾风险评估专栏

基于局部和全局方法的SWMM模型参数敏感性分析

施奇妙 ¹^,² ,
徐宗学 ¹^,² ,
卢兴超 ¹^,² ,
张萍 ³ ,
吴献平 ⁴

作者信息 +

Parameter sensitivity analysis of SWMM model based on local and global methods

Qimiao SHI ¹^,² ,
Zongxue XU ¹^,² ,
Xingchao LU ¹^,² ,
Ping ZHANG ³ ,
Xianping WU ⁴

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文章历史 +

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摘要

【目的】通过对模型参数开展敏感性分析，可进一步提升参数的优化效率、降低模型不确定性影响并提高模型精准度。【方法】以迁安市某居住小区为例，构建SWMM模型，并运用修正Morris筛选法和Sobol法，以洪峰流量与径流系数为优化目标，探究不同降雨情景下参数敏感度的分布特征，同时评估这两种方法的优劣。【结果】结果表明：修正Morris筛选法和Sobol法均能筛选出不同目标函数下敏感度较高的参数；对于洪峰流量，两种方法均识别出管道糙率系数为最敏感参数，敏感度分别为-0.563~-0.157和0.116~0.915;对于径流系数，修正Morris筛选法识别出最大入渗率为最敏感参数，敏感度为-0.358~0,Sobol法识别出不透水区洼蓄量为最敏感参数，敏感度为0.238~0.961;由Sobol法计算得到的二阶敏感度指标显示，参数间的相互作用主要表现为两个参数间的组合效应；修正Morris筛选法能对参数敏感性进行定性排序，计算高效便捷，Sobol法能全面分析参数及其相互作用的影响机制。【结论】通过综合运用定性与定量分析方法，对于深入解析模型参数敏感性、精准识别参数率定方向和提升模型可靠性具有重要的指导意义。

Abstract

[Objective] The sensitivity analysis of model parameters is conducive to enhancing the optimization efficiency of model parameters, reducing model uncertainty, and improving the model accuracy. [Methods] A residential community in Qian'an City was selected as an example, and the SWMM model was constructed. The analysis of parameter sensitivity was conducted by employing the modified Morris method and the Sobol method, with peak flow and runoff coefficient as optimization objectives under different rainfall scenarios. The advantages and disadvantages of these two methods were also evaluated. [Results] The result indicate that both the modified Morris method and Sobol method can identify high sensitivity parameters under different objective functions. For peak flow, both methods identify the roughness coefficient of the pipeline as the most sensitive parameter, with sensitivities of-0.563~-0.157 and 0.116~0.915, respectively. For runoff coefficient, the modified Morris method identifies the maximum infiltration rate as the most sensitive parameter, with sensitivities of-0.358~0. The Sobol method identifies the storage capacity of impermeable areas as the most sensitive parameter, with sensitivities of 0.238~0.961. The second-order sensitivity index calculated by the Sobol method shows that the interaction between parameters is mainly the combined effect between the two parameters. The modified Morris method can qualitatively sort the sensitivity of parameters, and the calculation is efficient and convenient. The Sobol method can comprehensively analyze the influence mechanism of parameters and their interactions. [Conclusion] The comprehensive application of qualitative and quantitative analysis method has important guiding significance for in-depth analysis of model parameter sensitivity, accurate identification of parameter calibration direction, and improvement of model reliability.