珠江流域不同历时极端降水雨型时空分布特征研究

李广宗; 孙赫敏; 苏布达; 黄金龙; 林齐根; 陈思蓉; 姜彤

doi:10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2025.10.006

水利水电技术（中英文） ›› 2025, Vol. 56 ›› Issue (10) : 72 -83. DOI: 10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2025.10.006

复杂灾害链与水旱巨灾风险评估专栏

珠江流域不同历时极端降水雨型时空分布特征研究

李广宗 ¹ ,
孙赫敏 ² ,
苏布达 ¹ ,
黄金龙 ¹ ,
林齐根 ¹ ,
陈思蓉 ³ ,
姜彤 ¹^,⁴^,⁵

作者信息 +

Spatio-temporal patterns of extreme precipitation with different durations in the Pearl River Basin

Guangzong LI ¹ ,
Hemin SUN ² ,
Buda SU ¹ ,
Jinlong HUANG ¹ ,
Qigen LIN ¹ ,
Sirong CHEN ³ ,
Tong JIANG ¹^,⁴^,⁵

Author information +

文章历史 +

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摘要

【目的】全球气候变暖影响下，珠江流域极端降水特征发生改变，厘清珠江流域雨型变化特征对防洪减灾具有重要意义。【方法】利用珠江流域125个地面气象站点1979—2018年逐时雨量资料，基于百分位阈值法定义极端强降水事件，应用线性趋势法、Mann-Kendall法等方法对珠江流域极端降水的历时、雨型时空变化特征进行分析。其中，不同历时(短历时1~6 h,中历时7~12 h,长历时>12 h)极端降水雨型采用模糊识别法进行识别；降水雨型根据以下7类确定：Ⅰ—Ⅲ为单峰型，分别为前期集中型、后期集中型和中期集中型；Ⅳ为均匀型降水；Ⅴ—Ⅶ为双峰型降水，两个雨峰分别位于降水事件的前部和后部、前部和中部、中部和后部。【结果】(1)珠江流域短、中、长历时极端降水出现频次分别为65%,26%和9%;1979—2018年，不同历时降水均呈现增加趋势，且短历时极端降水增加趋势显著。(2)珠江流域单峰型降水在总降水事件的占比为90%,短历时极端降水全流域以Ⅰ型降水为主；中历时极端降水除北江流域以Ⅱ型降水为主外，其他地区均以Ⅲ型为主；长历时极端降水在西江流域中部以Ⅰ、Ⅲ型为主，其他地区以Ⅱ型为主。(3)相较前20年，1999—2018年短历时降水流域大部分地区保持Ⅰ型降水为主不变；中历时降水在珠江三角洲和东江流域大部分地区表现为以Ⅲ型降水为主向Ⅱ型降水为主转变；长历时降水在东部地区多保持Ⅱ型降水不变或Ⅱ型降水向Ⅲ型降水转变，在西部地区多保持Ⅲ型降水不变或Ⅲ型降水为主向Ⅱ型降水为主转变。【结论】珠江流域短历时极端降水频次最高，主要为前期集中型降水，大部分地区未发生雨型转变。中、长历时极端降水的雨型分布差异显著，西部以中期集中型为主，东部多为后期集中型。东部地区主导雨型多保持不变或由中期向后期转变，西部主导雨型多保持原有雨型或由后期型向中期型转变。各地区需根据不同降水类型和特征，因地制宜地加强防洪减灾措施，特别应关注长历时极端降水事件对东部地区的影响。

Abstract

[Objective] Under the context of global warming, spatio-temperal pattern of extreme heavy precipitation in the Pearl River Basin have been changing and posesgreat challenges to flood prevention and disaster mitigation. [Methods] Basd on the hourly precipitation data of 125 meteorological stations in the Pearl River Basin from 1979 to 2018, the percentile threshold method is used to define the extreme heavy precipitation events. The extreme precipitation with different durations(1~6 h short duration event, 7~12 h medium duration event, and >12 h long duration event) is identified by fuzzy identification method, and seven rainfall type is considered for classification: single-peaked extreme Ⅰ—Ⅲ means the pre-centralized, the post-centralized, and the mid-centralized type, respectively; Ⅳ is the evenly distributed precipitation; double-peaked extreme Ⅴ—Ⅶ means, with the two peaks of rainfall being located in the beginning and the ending of event, the beginning and the middle of event, and the middle and the ending of the event, respectively. Identified. Then, changes of the rainfall duration and the rainfall type are analyzed in the Pearl River Basin by applying both the linear and non-linear trend analysis method. [Results] (1) The short-, medium-, and long-duration rainfall accounts for 65%, 26%, and 9% of the total extreme precipitation in the Pearl River Basin, respectively. From 1979 to 2018,extreme precipitation with all durations has shown increasing trends, with significant risingtrend observed for short-duration extremes.(2) Short-duration extreme precipitation across the basin falls primarily to Type Ⅰ. For medium-duration extreme precipitation, Type Ⅱ dominates in the Beijiang Basin, while Type Ⅲ prevails in remaining regions. For long-duration extreme precipitation, Types Ⅰ and Ⅲ are predominant in the central Xijiang Basin, whereas Type Ⅱ is dominant in other regions.(3) Compared to the previous 20 years, short-duration precipitation for 1999—2018 in most of the basin continued to be mainly Type Ⅰ. Medium-duration precipitation showed a shift from Type Ⅲ to Type Ⅱ as the dominant type in most of the Pearl River Delta and the Dongjiang Basin. Long-duration precipitation in eastern basin mostly remained Type Ⅱ or shifted from Type Ⅱ to Type Ⅲ, while in western regions, Type Ⅲ remained predominant or shifted towards Type Ⅱ as the main type. [Conclusion] Frequency of the short-duration extreme precipitation is the highest in the Pearl River Basin, and primarily falls to the pre-centralized type has not shown obvious change in for the last 40 years. Distribution pattern of the medium-and the long-duration extreme precipitation shows clear regional differences with the mid-centralized type dominant in the western region while the post-centralized prevails in the eastern region. In the eastern part of the basin, the dominant rainfall pattern mostly remains stable or shifts from the mid-centralized type to the post-centralized, whereas in the western part, rainfall pattern either remains unchanged or shifts from the post-centralized type to the mid-centralized. For adapting flood prevention and disaster mitigation, the specific rainfall type and rainfall duration in the basin, particularly that of the long-duration events in eastern part needs to be considered fully.