基于多暴雨情景的城市洪涝模拟与风险评估

李子祥; 杨帆; 范子武; 刘国庆; 乌景秀; 朱沈涛

doi:10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2025.10.007

水利水电技术（中英文） ›› 2025, Vol. 56 ›› Issue (10) : 84 -96. DOI: 10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2025.10.007

复杂灾害链与水旱巨灾风险评估专栏

基于多暴雨情景的城市洪涝模拟与风险评估

李子祥 ¹^,² ,
杨帆 ¹^,² ,
范子武 ¹^,² ,
刘国庆 ¹^,² ,
乌景秀 ¹^,² ,
朱沈涛 ¹^,²

作者信息 +

Urban flood risk simulation and assessment in cities based on multi rainstorm scenarios

Zixiang LI ¹^,² ,
Fan YANG ¹^,² ,
Ziwu FAN ¹^,² ,
Guoqing LIU ¹^,² ,
Jingxiu WU ¹^,² ,
Shentao ZHU ¹^,²

Author information +

文章历史 +

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摘要

【目的】洪涝模拟与风险评估在应对城市洪涝灾害中具有重要意义，目前的研究主要基于区域水文水动力模型进行暴雨情景分析。为提高水文水动力模型的计算精度并开展多情景分析，【方法】以江阴市为研究区域，采用太湖地区模型与江阴市洪涝模型嵌套的模式，开展城市洪涝的多情景模拟与评估。考虑长历时梅雨型、短历时强降雨和台风雨三种典型降雨特征，设置“郑州7·20”暴雨、特大暴雨和水利设计降雨三类情景共10组工况，构建研究区域水文水动力一二维河网管网耦合的洪涝模型，模拟并分析地表内涝淹没与风险分布。【结果】结果表明：“郑州7·20”暴雨情景下，风险区域内涨水速度快、水位峰值高、退水过程久，遭遇最大降雨量级时，研究区域淹没风险面积占比达37.32%;特大暴雨情景下，淹没面积受总降雨量与最大小时降雨量共同影响，最大降雨强度下总风险面积占比13.2%,淹没水深达0.60 m;水利设计降雨情景下，中风险区域占比最大，随着设计降雨量增加，中风险、高风险区域淹没面积明显增加，研究区内涝受本地降雨量和周边区域雨水情共同影响。【结论】研究成果揭示了江阴市遭遇极端暴雨的应对能力，预测了不同降雨情景下的风险要素，可为江阴市针对性制定应对对策与措施提供决策依据，提高城市应对极端暴雨洪涝灾害的能力。

Abstract

[Objective] Flood simulation and risk assessment are recognized as of great significance in addressing urban flood disasters. Utilizing regional hydrological hydrodynamic models to analyze rainstorm scenarios has become a predominant approach in current research. This method aims to improve the computational accuracy of hydrological and hydrodynamic models, thereby enabling more effective multi-scenario analysis. [Methods] Jiangyin City was selected as the study area, and a nested model of the Taihu Lake area model and Jiangyin City flood model were employed to conduct multi-scenario simulations and assessment of urban flood. Considering the three typical rainfall characteristics of long-duration plum rain type, short-duration heavy rainfall, and typhoon rain, a total of 10 working conditions were established across three key scenarios: the “July 20 rainstorm in Zhengzhou, ” extremely heavy rainstorm, and water conservancy design rainfall. A flood model coupled with hydrological and hydrodynamic forces and a two-dimensional river network management network in the study area was constructed. Detailed simulations and analyses of surface waterlogging and associated risk distributions were enabled. [Results] The result indicated that under the scenario of “July 20, Zhengzhou, ” the risk area experienced a rapid rise in water level reaching high peaks, and a prolonged receding process. When subjected to the maximum rainfall magnitude, the inundated risk area within the study area accounts for 37.32%. In the case of the extremely heavy rainstorm scenario, the submerged area were jointly influenced by the total rainfall and the maximum hourly rainfall. At the maximum rainfall intensity, the total risk area accounted for 13.2%, and the submerged water depth reached 0.60 m. Under the rainfall scenario of water conservancy design, the proportion of medium-risk areas was the highest. With the increase of design rainfall, the submerged area of medium-risk and high-risk areas significantly increased. Surface waterlogging in the study area was jointly affected by local rainfall and surrounding rainfall conditions. [Conclusion] The research result revealed the adaptability of Jiangyin to encounter extreme rainstorms and predicted the risk factors under different rainfall scenarios, which can provide a decision-making basis for Jiangyin to formulate targeted countermeasures and measures, thereby enhancing the city's capacity to cope with extreme rainstorm and flood disasters.