陕北-关中-陕南丰枯遭遇时空演变及其对水网布局的影响

Spatiotemporal evolution of wet-dry encounters in Northern, Central, and Southern Shaanxi and their effects on water network layout

摘要

【目的】变化环境下，相邻区域丰枯遭遇关系可能发生显著变化，这对区域调水工程的实施与运行带来深远影响。然而，丰枯遭遇的时空演变特征及其对水网布局的潜在影响尚不清晰，亟需开展深入研究。【方法】以陕西省陕北、关中和陕南三大区域为研究对象，基于Copula函数构建二维联合分布模型，量化丰枯遭遇组合事件的发生概率，探讨动态变化的主要影响因子，结合未来中等排放情景预测丰枯遭遇演变趋势，并评估其对水网布局的潜在影响，提出优化建议。【结果】结果显示：(1)关中-陕南丰枯同步概率最高，为60.71%,而陕北-陕南丰枯同步概率最低，为44.93%;在调水方面，关中-陕南、陕北-关中、陕北-陕南三个联合区有利于调水的概率均在45%左右；(2)遥相关因子北极涛动对关中-陕北和陕北-陕南丰枯遭遇的变化具有主导作用，其次为太平洋年代际振荡；(3)在未来中等排放情景下，关中-陕南和陕北-关中地区有利于调水的概率较现状分别提高了7.31%和2.58%,同枯的发生概率分别下降了3.08%和1.32%。【结论】关中、陕北和陕南区域间的丰枯遭遇关系在变化环境下呈现显著时空差异；未来中等排放情景下，关中-陕南调水适宜性有所提升，从陕南调水在一定程度上能够缓解关中的缺水情况；同枯情景下可能加剧区域水资源压力，为实现更高效的水资源配置，应进一步加强陕南水源补充能力建设，同时推动关中和陕北黄河引水、备用水源及战略储备设施的完善，以适应未来气候变化带来的不确定性和挑战。

Abstract

[Objective] In a changing environment, the wet-dry encounter relationships between adjacent regions may undergo significant changes, profoundly affecting the implementation and operation of regional water diversion projects. However, the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of wet-dry encounters and their potential effects on water network layout remain unclear, necessitating in-depth research. [Methods] Taking the three major regions of Northern, Central, and Southern Shaanxi as the study areas, a two-dimensional joint distribution model was established based on the Copula function to quantify the occurrence probabilities of wet-dry encounter events. The main factors driving dynamic changes were investigated, and the future evolution trends of wet-dry encounters under a moderate emission scenario were projected. Furthermore, the potential effects on water network layout were assessed, and optimization recommendations were provided. [Results] The result showed that:(1) the probability of synchronous wet-dry encounters was highest between Central and Southern Shaanxi at 60.71%, while it was lowest between Northern and Southern Shaanxi at 44.93%. In terms of water diversion, the probability of favorable water diversion conditions in the three joint regions(Central-Southern Shaanxi, Northern-Central Shaanxi, and Northern-Southern Shaanxi) was approximately 45%.(2) The Arctic Oscillation was the dominant teleconnection factor driving the changes in wet-dry encounters between Central-Northern Shaanxi and Northern-Southern Shaanxi, followed by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.(3) Under the future moderate emission scenario, the probability of favorable water diversion conditions in Central-Southern Shaanxi and Northern-Central Shaanxi was projected to increase by 7.31% and 2.58%, respectively, while the probability of simultaneous drought was expected to decrease by 3.08% and 1.32%, respectively. [Conclusion] Significant spatiotemporal variations are observed in the wet-dry encounter relationships among Central, Northern, and Southern Shaanxi under changing environmental conditions. Under the future moderate emission scenario, the suitability for water diversion from Southern to Central Shaanxi is expected to improve, which can help alleviate water shortages in Central Shaanxi to some extent. However, simultaneous drought conditions may exacerbate regional water resource pressure. To achieve more efficient water resource allocation, it is essential to strengthen water replenishment capacity in Southern Shaanxi while improving water diversion from the Yellow River, backup water sources, and strategic reserve facilities in Central and Northern Shaanxi to cope with the uncertainties and challenges posed by future climate change.

关键词

丰枯遭遇 / Copula函数 / CMIP6 / 动态变化 / 遥相关因子 / 水网 / 影响因素

Key words

wet-dry encounters / Copula function / CMIP6 / dynamic changes / teleconnection factors / water network / influencing factors

基金资助

国家自然科学基金面上项目(52279026)