闽江流域极端降水时空演变特征及气候影响因子

崔洪铭; 刘梅冰; 甘贝贝; 陈兴伟; 陈莹; 高路; 邓海军

doi:10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2025.11.005

水利水电技术（中英文） ›› 2025, Vol. 56 ›› Issue (11) : 59 -70. DOI: 10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2025.11.005

复杂灾害链与水旱巨灾风险评估专栏

闽江流域极端降水时空演变特征及气候影响因子

崔洪铭 ¹^,² ,
刘梅冰 ¹^,²^,³ ,
甘贝贝 ¹^,² ,
陈兴伟 ²^,³ ,
陈莹 ²^,³^,⁴ ,
高路 ²^,³^,⁴ ,
邓海军 ²^,³^,⁴

作者信息 +

Characteristics of spatio-temporal evolution of extreme precipitation and Climate influencing factors in Minjiang River Basin

Hongming CUI ¹^,² ,
Meibing LIU ¹^,²^,³ ,
Beibei GAN ¹^,² ,
Xingwei CHEN ²^,³ ,
Ying CHEN ²^,³^,⁴ ,
Lu GAO ²^,³^,⁴ ,
Haijun DENG ²^,³^,⁴

Author information +

文章历史 +

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摘要

【目的】全球气候变暖导致区域水文循环过程加快，极端降水事件的发生频率和强度也随之增加，闽江流域作为我国东南沿海的重要流域，研究流域内极端降水时空演变对流域内洪涝灾害防治有重要意义。【方法】基于闽江流域29个气象站点的逐日降水资料，选取9种极端降水指数，采用Mann-Kendall趋势分析、Sens’s斜率估计和Morlet小波分析等方法，分析了闽江流域极端降水的时空演变和周期性特征，进一步探讨了大气环流因子对极端降水的影响。【结果】结果显示：1962—2021年间，年降水总量(PRCPTOT)、最大1 d降水量(Rx1day)、最大连续5 d降水量(Rx5day)、极端强降水量(R99p)和大雨以上日数(R25mm)呈不显著上升趋势；极端降水量(R95p)、日降水强度(SDII)和暴雨以上日数(R50mm)的上升趋势达到显著性水平(P<0.05),增长率分别达到20.48 mm/10 a、0.22 mm·d^-1/10 a和0.28/10 a;连续降水日数(CWD)呈不显著下降趋势(-0.14 d/10 a)。PRCPTOT、R25mm和R50mm等指标整体呈现从东南部沿海向西北部山区递增的趋势，Rx1day、Rx5day、R95p和R99p等低值区主要位于流域中部，高值区集中在西北部及东南部沿海地区，CWD高值区主要分布在流域西南部；所有站点的SDII呈上升趋势，4个站点显著上升，主要位于流域西北部和东南沿海。极端降水指数存在两种不同时间尺度的周期特征。当年的大气环流因子EASMI、GMLOT和Nino3.4对极端降水的影响均达到显著性水平(P<0.01)。【结论】结果表明：近60年来，闽江流域极端降水强度和频率呈增加趋势，持续性降雨减少，极端降水从长历时低强度向短历时高强度演变；极端降水高值区主要位于西北武夷山脉、南部戴云山脉九仙山以及东部沿海长乐一带。极端降水指数存在6~8年、45~56年等2种时间尺度的周期性，2000年后流域极端降水在短周期尺度震荡交替更加频繁。NAO、GMLOT和Nino3.4对极端降水的影响具有滞后性，全球温度升高是闽江流域极端降水量增加、连续性降水减少的重要因素。

Abstract

[Objective] Global warming has accelerated the hydrological cycle in the regions, leading to an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events. Minjiang River Basin is an important basin in the southeast coast of China, so it is of great significance to study the spatiotemporal evolution of extreme precipitation for the prevention and control of flood disasters in the Minjiang River Basin. [Methods] Based on the daily precipitation data of 29 meteorological stations in the Minjiang River Basin, 9 extreme precipitation indices were selected. Applying the method of Mann-Kendall trend analysis, Sens' s slope estimation and Morlet wavelet analysis, the spatiotemporal evolution and periodic characteristics of extreme precipitation in the Minjiang River Basin were analyzed, and the influence of atmospheric circulation factors on extreme precipitation was further discussed. [Results] The result showed that during the period from 1962 to 2021, the total annual precipitation(PRCPTOT), maximum 1-day precipitation(Rx1day), maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation(Rx5day), extreme heavy precipitation(R99p), and the number of days with rainfall above heavy rain(R25mm) exhibited an insignificant upward trend. The upward trends of extreme precipitation(R95p), daily precipitation intensity(SDII), and the number of days above storm(R50mm) reached a significant level(P<0.05), with the growth rates reaching 20.48 mm/10 a, 0.22 mm·d^-1/10 a, and 0.28/10 a, respectively. The number of consecutive rainy days(CWD) showed an insignificant downward trend(-0.14 d/10 a). Indicators such as PRCPTOT, R25mm, and R50mm presented an increasing trend from the southeast coastal areas to the northwest mountainous areas. The low value areas of Rx1day, Rx5day, R95p, and R99p were mainly located in the central part of the basin, while the high value areas were concentrated in the northwest and southeast coastal areas. The high value areas of CWD were mainly distributed in the southwest of the basin. The SDII of all stations showed an upward trend, and 4 stations had a significant increase, mainly located in the northwest and southeast coastal areas of the basin. The extreme precipitation indices exhibited the periodic characteristics of two different time scales. The impacts of atmospheric circulation factors of EASMI, GMLOT, and Nino3.4 on extreme precipitation in the current year all reached a significant level(P<0.01). [Conclusion] The result indicated that in the past 60 years, the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation in the Minjiang River Basin have exhibited an increasing trend, while the persistence of rainfall has decreased, and extreme precipitation has evolved from long-duration and low-intensity to short-duration and high-intensity. The high value areas of extreme precipitation are mainly located in the Wuyi Mountains in the northwest, the Jiuxian Mountain in the southern Daiyun Mountains, and the Changle city along the eastern coast. The extreme precipitation index has periodicities of two time scales, namely 6~8 years and 45~56 years. After 2000, the extreme precipitation in the basin oscillated more frequently at short period scales. The impacts of NAO, GMLOT, and Nino3.4 on extreme precipitation have a lag effect. The increase in global temperature is an important factor contributing to the increase of extreme precipitation and the decrease of continuous precipitation in the Minjiang River Basin.