基于分类递归特征消除法-随机森林优化算法的山洪灾害风险模拟技术

张晓蕾; 秦瑞华; 姚秋玲; 董长奇; 刘荣华

doi:10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2025.11.006

水利水电技术（中英文） ›› 2025, Vol. 56 ›› Issue (11) : 71 -82. DOI: 10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2025.11.006

复杂灾害链与水旱巨灾风险评估专栏

基于分类递归特征消除法-随机森林优化算法的山洪灾害风险模拟技术

张晓蕾 ¹^,² ,
秦瑞华 ³ ,
姚秋玲 ¹^,² ,
董长奇 ⁴ ,
刘荣华 ¹^,²

作者信息 +

Flash flood disaster risk simulation technology based on classified recursive feature elimination-random forest optimization algorithm

Xiaolei ZHANG ¹^,² ,
Ruihua QIN ³ ,
Qiuling YAO ¹^,² ,
Changqi DONG ⁴ ,
Ronghua LIU ¹^,²

Author information +

文章历史 +

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摘要

【目的】山洪灾害给人类社会带来严重的经济损失和人员伤亡，因此科学识别、评估山洪灾害风险是亟待解决的科学问题。旨在通过耦合特征选择和随机森林算法提高山洪灾害风险预测的准确性，为灾害预警提供科学依据。【方法】选取17个与山洪灾害发生相关的特征因子，提出了耦合分类递归特征消除法(Classified Recursive Feature Elimination, RFE-class)和随机森林优化算法的特征选择技术，识别山洪灾害风险模拟最优特征组合。【结果】研究结果表明，采用分类递归特征法获得的最佳特征组合可以显著提高随机森林模型的预测性能，ROC(Receiver Operating Characteristic)曲线值达到了94.7%,相比单独使用随机森林算法精度提升了约5%。【结论】福建省山洪灾害高风险区域主要分布在武夷山脉、戴云山和玳瑁山区，涉及面积4.9万km²,影响人口2 700万人口。

Abstract

[Objective] Flash flood disasters cause severe economic losses and casualties to human society, making the scientific identification and assessment of flash flood disaster risk an urgent issue to be addressed. The aim of the study is to improve the accuracy of flash flood risk prediction by coupling feature selection with the Random Forest algorithm, thereby providing a scientific basis for disaster early warning. [Methods] Seventeen feature factors associated with the occurrence of flash flood disasters were selected. A feature selection approach that integrated Classified Recursive Feature Elimination(RFE-class) with a Random Forest optimization algorithm was proposed to identify the optimal feature combination for flash flood risk simulation. [Results] The result showed that the optimal feature combination obtained using the RFE-class method significantly improved the predictive performance of the Random Forest model, achieving a Receiver Operating Characteristic(ROC) curve value of 94.7%, representing an approximately 5% improvement in accuracy compared to using the Random Forest algorithm alone. [Conclusion] In Fujian Province, the high-risk areas for flash flood disasters are primarily distributed in the Wuyi Mountains, Daiyun Mountains, and Daimao Mountain regions, covering an area of approximately 49 000 km² and affecting 27 million people.