鄂尔多斯市用水结构演变及驱动因素分析

Analysis of evolution and driving factors of water consumption structure in Ordos City

摘要

【目的】区域用水结构演变分析及驱动因子识别对于制定水资源综合利用规划具有重要实践意义。【方法】本文以鄂尔多斯市为例，运用信息熵及重心迁移模型分析区域用水结构变化特征，利用对数平均迪氏指数(LMDI)分解模型识别当地用水结构演变的关键驱动因素。【结果】结果表明：(1)中心城区和准格尔旗分别以生活、工业用水量为主导，其他旗区农业用水占比较大，用水总量与农业用水量重心位于杭锦旗，工业、生活和生态用水量重心近年来位于伊金霍洛旗；(2)鄂尔多斯市2007—2023年用水结构总体平稳，均衡度空间呈现从中心城区向四周递减趋势，中心城区用水结构具有极强的稳定性，而农业用水为主导的区域用水系统均衡性较差；(3)社会经济发展、科技进步和生态环境是影响鄂尔多斯市用水结构的主要驱动因素，其中城镇常住人口可支配收入、工业生产总值、万元GDP用水量和人均公园绿地面积是影响用水结构的主要驱动因子。【结论】快速城镇化发展与产业结构调整促使城市用水结构演变，因此，推进城镇化建设、优化工业产业结构、深度节水控水和生态保护修复是促进鄂尔多斯市用水结构均衡化的有效策略。

Abstract

[Objective] Analysis of the evolution of regional water consumption structure and identification of its driving factors has important practical significance for formulating comprehensive water resource utilization plans. [Methods] Taking Ordos City as an example, the information entropy and center of gravity migration model were applied to analyze the characteristics of regional water consumption structure changes, and the logarithmic mean divisia index(LMDI) decomposition model was adopted to identify the main driving factors of local water consumption structure evolution. [Results] The result showed that:(1) the central urban area and Jungar Banner were dominated by domestic and industrial water consumption, respectively, while agricultural water consumption accounted for a larger proportion in other banners and districts. The center of gravity of total and agricultural water consumption was located in Hangjin Banner, while centers of gravity of industrial, domestic, and ecological water consumption have shifted to Ejin Horo Banner in recent years.(2) From 2007 to 2023, the water consumption structure of Ordos City remained generally stable, with the equilibrium degree decreasing from the central urban area outward. The water consumption structure in the central urban area showed strong stability, while the regions dominated by agricultural water consumption exhibited weaker equilibrium.(3) Socioeconomic development, technological progress, and ecological environment were the main driving factors of the water consumption structure of Ordos City. Among them, disposable income of urban permanent residents, gross industrial product, water consumption per 10 000 yuan of GDP, and per capita green area were the key drivers. [Conclusion] Rapid urbanization and industrial restructuring have driven the evolution of the urban water consumption structure. Therefore, promoting urbanization development, optimizing industrial structure, implementing deep water-saving and control measures, and enhancing ecological protection and restoration are effective strategies to achieve a balanced water consumption structure in Ordos City.

关键词

用水结构 / 信息熵 / 均衡度 / LMDI分解模型 / 鄂尔多斯市 / 驱动因素 / 影响因素

Key words

water consumption structure / information entropy / equilibrium degree / LMDI decomposition model / Ordos City / driving factors / influencing factors

基金资助

国家重点研发计划项目(2023YFC3206503)

国家重点研发计划项目(2023YFC3206504)

国家自然科学基金项目(51979271)

国家自然科学基金项目(52121006)