基于系统动力学模型的泰安市水资源承载力“四水四定”分析

Analysis of “Basing Four Aspects on Water Resources” for water resources carrying capacity in Tai’an City based on system dynamics model

摘要

【目的】“四水四定”是十六字治水思路的具体体现，以“四水四定”为具体目标，研究缺水地区的水资源未来承载状态变化趋势进而有针对性地制定相关政策、规划对其进行干预和调控是当前水资源规划管理的前沿性议题。【方法】建立系统动力学模型探索泰安市水资源整体承载状况的时空演变规律，并在此基础上引入“四水四定”水资源承载模型进行南水北调东线二期工程生效前后泰安市城、地、人、产承载状况分析。【结果】结果显示：2035年泰安市人口总数将超载92万人，城市建成区面积超载7 267 hm²,耕地灌溉面积超载4.19万hm²,工业增加值超载339.9亿元。【结论】结果表明未来主要受产业发展制约，2017年后泰安市水资源承载指数表现出持续加重态势，面临水资源超载的风险；各区县水资源承载状况空间差异性明显，南水北调东线二期工程的生效一定程度上可改善泰安市水资源承载状况，但无法从根本上改变水资源超载问题；不考虑用水优先级情况下泰安市快速增长的工业用水可能挤压其他用水户空间，导致城、地、人、产出现不同程度超载问题。本结论可为泰安市未来水资源规划管理相关政策制定提供参考。

Abstract

[Objective] The “Basing Four Aspects on Water Resources” principle, as a concrete embodiment of the sixteen-character water governance concept, aims to investigate future trends in water resources carrying capacity in water-scarce regions and formulate targeted policies and plans for intervention and regulation. This is a key issue in contemporary planning and management of water resources. [Methods] A system dynamics model was established to explore the spatiotemporal evolution of water resources carrying capacity in Tai'an City. On this basis, the water resources carrying capacity model of “Basing Four Aspects on Water Resources” was introduced to analyze the carrying capacity of urban areas, land, population, and industry before and after the implementation of the Eastern Route Phase II project of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project. [Results] The result showed that by 2035, Tai'an's total population would exceed its capacity by 920 000 people, the urban built-up area would exceed its capacity by 7267hm², the irrigated cultivated area would exceed its capacity by 628 000 mu, and the industrial added value would exceed its capacity by 41 900 hm². [Conclusion] The result indicate thatfuture development will be primarily constrained by industrial growth. Since 2017, the water resources carrying capacity index of Tai'an City has shown a continuous worsening trend, facing the risk of water resource overload. The spatial differences in water resources carrying capacity across different districts and counties are significant. Although the implementation of the South-to-North Water Diversion East Route Phase II project can improve the water resources carrying capacity of Tai'an to some extent, it cannot fundamentally resolve the issue of water resource overload. Without considering water use priorities, the rapid growth of industrial water use in Tai'an may reduce water availability for other sectors, leading to varying degrees of overload in urban areas, land, population, and industry. These findings can provide a reference for developing future planning and management policies of water resources in Tai'an City.

关键词

四水四定 / 水资源承载力 / 系统动力学 / 南水北调 / 影响因素

Key words

Basing Four Aspects on Water Resources / water resources carrying capacity / system dynamics / South-to-North Water Diversion Project / influencing factors

基金资助

国家自然科学基金项目(52279005)

国家重点研发计划项目(2023YFC3205600)