团洲垸溃堤洪水演进过程模拟与应急撤离过程推演

徐志; 马一鸣; 梁伟佳; 翟然; 李雨晨; 高希超

doi:10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2025.12.003

水利水电技术（中英文） ›› 2025, Vol. 56 ›› Issue (12) : 27 -40. DOI: 10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2025.12.003

复杂灾害链与水旱巨灾风险评估专栏

团洲垸溃堤洪水演进过程模拟与应急撤离过程推演

徐志 ¹ ,
马一鸣 ²^,³ ,
梁伟佳 ⁴ ,
翟然 ¹ ,
李雨晨 ²^,³ ,
高希超 ⁴

作者信息 +

Simulation of the flood evolution process and emergency evacuation process of the Tuanzhou embankment breach

Zhi XU ¹ ,
Yiming MA ²^,³ ,
Weijia LIANG ⁴ ,
Ran ZHAI ¹ ,
Yuchen LI ²^,³ ,
Xichao GAO ⁴

Author information +

文章历史 +

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摘要

【目的】洪水来临时，应急撤离工作的高效开展对于保护当地居民的生命财产安全至关重要，由于溃堤洪水具有突发性且演进速度快，需要探究洪水演进对应急撤离过程的影响。【方法】以华容县团洲垸溃堤洪水演进过程和应急撤离过程为研究对象，采用Dijkstra算法识别团洲垸内村庄的应急撤离路径，结合ANUGA模型计算的溃堤洪水淹没过程，分析洪水演进对于应急撤离过程的影响。【结果】ANUGA模型的模拟水位过程与实测水位过程基本一致，纳什效率系数为0.97,表明模型可较好的模拟团洲垸溃堤后的洪水演进过程；团洲垸主要村庄的撤离路线长度范围为4~11 km,撤离总耗时均超过60 min,撤离所需时间最长为80.3 min;团洲垸北部村庄的撤离路径远，通行耗时久，中部和南部村庄由于人口主要集中在055乡道附近，当以055乡道为撤离路径时车辆密度较大，使得道路通行速度降低，通行时间长；由于溃口位置在团洲垸北部、团洲垸中部和北部村庄的应急撤离道路在溃堤2 h内受到洪水影响，南部村庄的撤离路线在溃口3 h之后开始逐渐被洪水淹没。当提前1 h预警时，团洲垸人员均可安全撤离，但当提前0.5 h预警或预警时间更晚时，洪水将会造成北部村庄出现未成功撤离人员。【结论】如果溃口出现在北部堤防，位于团洲垸北部的村庄洪水风险较大，亟需开展团洲垸北部安全区的规划建设；需对村庄的溃堤洪水应急撤离方案进行合理规划，减少因车辆拥堵导致的通行效率降低；同时应加强团洲垸堤防维护与巡查工作，提升灾害感知和预警能力。研究成果可为团洲垸区域防洪减灾规划和人员应急撤离提供参考借鉴。

Abstract

[Objective] The efficient execution of emergency evacuation operations is crucial for protecting the lives and property of local residents when a flood occurs. Due to the sudden nature of breach floods and their rapid progression, it is necessary to investigate the impact of flood evolution on the evacuation process. [Methods] The breach flood evacuation process and evolution process of the Tuanzhou embankment in Huarong County were taken as the research object. The Dijkstra algorithm was used to identify emergency evacuation paths for villages within Tuanzhou embankment. The breach flood inundation process, calculated by the ANUGA model, was combined to analyze the impact of flood evolution on the emergency evacuation process. [Results] The simulated water levels from the ANUGA model align closely with the observed water levels, with a Nash efficiency coefficient of 0.97, indicating the model's high accuracy in simulating the flood evolution process following the embankment breach in Tuanzhou embankment. The evacuation route lengths for the main villages in Tuanzhou embankment ranged from 4 to 11 km, with the total evacuation time being exceeded 60 minutes for all routes, and the longest evacuation time being 80.3 minutes. The evacuation routes for villages in the northern part of Tuanzhou embankment were long, resulting in extended travel times. For villages in the central and southern parts, where the population was mainly concentrated near the 055 township road, the vehicle density was higher when the 055 township road was used as the evacuation route, which result ed in reduced road travel speed and increased travel time. Due to the breach being located in the northern part of Tuanzhou embankment, emergency evacuation routes for villages in the central and northern regions were affected by flooding within 2 hours of the embankment breach, while evacuation routes for southern villages began to be inundated approximately 3 hours after the breach. When a 1 hour early warning was issued, all residents in Tuanzhou embankment could be safely evacuated. However, when the early warning was issued 0.5 hours in advance or later, the flood resulted in residents in the northern villages being unable to evacuate successfully. [Conclusion] If a breach occurs at the northern embankment, the villages in the northern part of Tuanzhou embankment will face a higher flood risk, highlighting the urgent need for planning and constructing a safety zone in the northern area of Tuanzhou embankment. The emergency evacuation plans for embankment breach floods in the villages need to be reasonably planned to reduce the decrease in traffic efficiency caused by vehicle congestion and to improve the regional emergency response capability. At the same time, efforts should be made to strengthen the maintenance and inspection of Tuanzhou embankment, as well as to improve disaster perception and early warning capabilities. The findings provide valuable references for flood control and disaster reduction planning, as well as for emergency evacuation of residents in the Tuanzhou embankment.