昆明近70 a暴雨气候特征及变化趋势分析

Analysis on the climatic characteristics and change trend of rainstorm in Kunming in recent 70 years

摘要

为更科学地识别变化环境下城市暴雨特征及其演变规律，增强城市应对洪涝灾害的预防及决策能力，利用昆明国家基准气象观测站72 a(1951—2022年)的逐日降水资料，研究昆明近70 a暴雨时程演变特征，采用Mann-Kendall非参数检验的统计学方法分析昆明降水、暴雨量、暴雨日数、暴雨强度等要素的变化趋势及其显著程度，同时应用多种数理统计方法验证其研究结论。研究表明：昆明近70 a整体呈现降水量略减、暴雨量增加、暴雨日数增多、暴雨强度增强的变化趋势；小雨、中雨、大雨减少，而暴雨逐渐增加；预测未来暴雨将可能持续性增多趋强，每10 a增长约8.28 mm。

Abstract

In order to more scientifically identify the characteristics and evolution rules of urban rainstorm under changing environment, and enhance the prevention and decision-making ability of urban response against flood disasters, daily precipitation data of Kunming National Reference Meteorological Station in 72 years(1951—2022) were used to study the evolution characteristics of rainstorm duration in Kunming during recent 70 years. Mann-Kendall test was used to analyze the variation trend and significance degree of precipitation, rainstorm amount, rainstorm days, rainstorm intensity in Kunming. At the same time, a variety of mathematical statistics method were used to verify the research conclusion. The result showed that in the past 70 years, the precipitation in Kunming had slightly decreased, the rainstorm volume had increased, the rainstorm days had increased, and the rainstorm intensity had increased. Light, moderate and heavy rain decreased, while rainstorm gradually increased. It was predicted that rainstorm would continue to increase and strengthen with the growth rate of 8.28 mm per decade in the future.

关键词

暴雨气候特征 / 暴雨特征变量 / 变化趋势 / 降水贡献度

Key words

climatic characteristics of rainstorm / characteristic variable of rainstorm / change trend / precipitation contribution

基金资助

中国电力建设股份有限公司核心攻关技术项目(DJ-HXGG-2021-04)

中国电力建设股份有限公司核心攻关技术项目(DJ-HXGG-2021-05)

云南省科技厅重点研发计划(202203AA080010)

江西省自然科学基金项目(20232BAB214089)