基于“干旱强度-持续时间-损失量”三维特征变量的干旱评估模型研究

Research on drought assessment model based on three dimensional characteristic variables of “drought intensity-duration-loss”

摘要

为研究内蒙古地区受灾人口与干旱强度、持续时间等干旱特征要素的定量关系。研究基于调查数据和综合干旱指数(CDI)获取了内蒙古地区受灾人口的样本数据。从干旱强度和持续时间等特征要素出发，分析了受灾人口与干旱强度、持续时间之间的相关性，构建了基于“干旱强度-持续时间-损失量”三维特征变量的干旱评估方法与三维模型。研究表明，受灾人口是由干旱强度、持续时间等特征要素共同决定的，受灾人口与干旱强度和持续时间存在显著相关，干旱强度和持续时间也存在着显著的交互作用，且受灾人口与干旱强度和持续时间之间的响应关系更趋向于非线性响应关系。

Abstract

In order to study the quantitative relationship between drought loss of affected population and drought intensity and duration in Inner Mongolia. Based on the survey data and the Comprehensive Drought Index(CDI), the sample data of the affected population was obtained in Inner Mongolia. Based on the characteristic factors of drought intensity and duration, the correlation between the affected population and drought intensity and duration was analyzed, and the drought evaluation method and 3D model based on the 3D characteristic variables of drought intensity-duration-loss were constructed. The result showed that the affected population was determined by drought intensity, duration and other characteristic factors. The affected population was significantly correlated with drought intensity and duration, drought intensity and duration also have significant interaction. And the response relationship between the affected population and drought intensity and duration tended to be nonlinear.

关键词

干旱 / 干旱损失量 / 干旱强度 / 持续时间 / 干旱评估

Key words

drought / drought losses / drought intensity / duration / drought assessment

Author summay

李翔宇(1993—), 男, 助理研究员, 博士, 主要从事水旱灾害损失评估方面研究。E-mail: [e-mail]