缺资料流域中小河流洪水预报研究
Flood forecasting for small and medium-sized rivers in ungauged basins
缺资料流域中小河流洪水预报研究是目前水文研究的重难点问题。以广州市派潭河流域为目标流域，分别采用综合单位线法和水文相似参数移植法进行水文预报研究，其中参数移植法将西福河流域作为参证流域，基于西福河和派潭河流域地形指数频率分析结果，表明两流域具有水文相似性，将参证流域新安江模型参数直接移植到目标流域进行洪水模拟预报。对比分析两种方法在目标流域洪水模拟情况，结果表明基于新安江模型的参数移植法需要较多参证流域和目标流域的水文地理资料，较综合单位线法整体预报精度更高。综合单位线法所需的水文地理资料较少，整体精度较低，但随着洪水量级增大，预报精度会显著提高。并综合以上两种方法的适用条件和应用效果，提出一种缺资料中小河流的洪水预报方法。
The study of flood simulation and forecasting for small and medium-sized rivers with insufficient data is a key and difficult problem in hydrological forecasting research. Paitan River Basin in Guangzhou was taken as the target basin, and the synthetic unit hydrograph method and the hydrological similarity parameter transplantation method were applied for hydrological simulation and forecasting research. In the hydrological similarity parameter transplantation method, the Xifu River Basin is used as the reference basin. Based on the terrain index frequency analysis result of the Xifu River and Paitan River basins, it is considered that the two basins have hydrological similarity. The Xinanjiang model parameters of the reference basin are directly transplanted to the target basin for typical flood simulation and forecasting. The flood simulation result of the above two method in the target basin are compared and analyzed with the measured flood data. The result show that the parameter transplantation method based on the Xinanjiang model requires more hydrological and geographical data from the reference basin and the target basin, and has higher overall forecasting accuracy than the synthetic unit hydrograph method. The synthetic unit hydrograph method requires less hydrological and geographical data and has lower overall accuracy, but as the flood magnitude increases, the forecasting accuracy will significantly improve. Based on the applicability conditions and application effects of the above two method, a flood forecasting method for small and medium-sized rivers with insufficient data is proposed.
水文相似性 / 地形指数 / 参数移植 / 综合单位线法 / 新安江模型
Hydrological similarity / Terrain index / Parameter transplantation / Synthetic unit hydrograph / Xinanjiang model
/
| 〈 |
|
〉 |
京公网安备11010202008535号
PDF
(10287KB)
