基于多源信息融合的船舶撞击弧形闸门风险评估

张超怡; 陈星; 张启灵; 邢喜旺; 李端有; 李明

doi:10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2025.S1.082

水利水电技术（中英文） ›› 2025, Vol. 56 ›› Issue (S1) : 534 -542. DOI: 10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2025.S1.082

运行管理

基于多源信息融合的船舶撞击弧形闸门风险评估

张超怡 ¹ ,
陈星 ² ,
张启灵 ¹^,³ ,
邢喜旺 ² ,
李端有 ¹^,³ ,
李明 ¹

作者信息 +

Risk assessment of ship impact on radial gates using multi-source information fusion

Chaoyi ZHANG ¹ ,
Xing CHEN ² ,
Qiling ZHANG ¹^,³ ,
Xiwang XING ² ,
Duanyou LI ¹^,³ ,
Ming LI ¹

Author information +

文章历史 +

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摘要

随着内河航运的快速发展，各类水利设施面临船舶撞击的风险日益增大。相比于大坝等大体积混凝土挡水结构，闸门结构尺寸相对单薄，在遭受船撞后失效的风险更高，是挡水一线的薄弱环节，当前尚无成熟的方法定量评估闸门的船撞失效风险。针对弧形闸门，以有限元数值模拟结果作为评价数据输入，提出一种基于组合权重、云模型和D-S证据理论的多源信息融合评估方法，开展了闸门结构的风险评估研究。结果表明：船舶吨位200~3 000 t、船速1~8 m/s时，闸门遭受船撞后的失效风险等级为Ⅱ级，撞击后存在一定的质量隐患，但不会影响其安全运行。该方法能够直观呈现闸门风险等级，实现了失效风险的定量评估，评估结果可为水利基础设施通航安全管理及应急预案的制定提供科学依据。

Abstract

The risk of ship impact is growing for various types of water conservation facilities due to the fast-growing inland river navigation. Compared with general mass concrete water-retaining structures, e.g. dams, gate structures are thinner and thus take higher failure risks in ship-impact events. Consequently, gate structures are generally recognized as weaknesses among water-retaining structures. Unfortunately, no mature method are available for quantitative assessment of failure risks to gate structures in ship-impact events. A risk assessment study of a radial gate structure was conducted. A multi-source information fusion assessment approach based on the combination of weights, the cloud model and the D-S evidence theory was proposed. Finite element analysis was carried out to provide the data input for the risk assessment.In the current case of the ship tonnage between 200-3 000 t and the ship's speed between 1-8 m/s, the failure risk of the radial gate subjected to ship collisions is ranked as Class II. The gate should have some pitfalls in ship-impact events but can maintain its safe operation. The proposed method can directly present the gate's risk level, thus achieving quantitative assessment of failure risks to gate structures in ship-impact events. The assessment result can serve as a scientific foundation for the navigation safety management of water conservancy facilities and the formulation of the corresponding emergency plans.