基于Logistic模型的河南省电网洪涝灾害风险评估及影响分区

Flood disaster risk assessment and impact zoning of Henan Province power grid based on logistic model

摘要

电网洪涝风险评估对于保障电网安全运行具有重要意义。针对河南省行政区域内复杂的流域下垫面和水文气象情况，构建河南省洪涝灾害评价指标体系，并基于二元Logistic回归模型，分流域建立指标体系与历史灾害发生情况的映射关系，求取河南省洪涝风险概率分布图，结合电网密度数据，对河南电网洪涝风险进行评估，绘制电网洪涝风险区划图。结果表明：(1)河南省东南部的淮河流域洪涝风险较高且发生点集中，该结果较准确地反映了历史灾害分布情况。(2)汛期降雨作为主要致灾因子，在较大流域尺度洪涝灾害评估中，和洪涝风险在空间上不同步。(3)洪涝灾害对电网安全的影响呈带状分布，平顶山、许昌、郑州、开封为高风险带，新乡、安阳、濮阳为中风险带。该分区结果可为河南省电网布设和防灾减灾提供支撑，也可为复杂流域下垫面的行政区域电网洪涝灾害风险评估与分析提供技术参考。

Abstract

Flood risk assessment for power grids is crucial to ensuring their safe operation.This study focused on the complex basin underlay and hydrometeorological conditions within the administrative region of Henan Province, constructed an evaluation index system for flood disasters in Henan Province. Based on a binary logistic regression model, we established a mapping relationship between the index system and historical disaster occurrences to derive a flood risk probability distribution map for Henan Province by different basin. Combining this with power grid density data, we assessed the flood risk for Henan's power grid and created a flood risk zoning map of power grid. The result indicate that the Huai River basin in the southeastern part of Henan have a higher flood risk, with a concentrated occurrence of incidents, accurately reflecting historical disaster distribution. During the flood season, rainfall, which is the primary factor causing disasters, shows spatial asynchrony with flood risk in large-scale basin flood assessments. The impact of flood disasters on power grid safety shows a band-like distribution, with Pingdingshan, Xuchang, Zhengzhou, and Kaifeng identified as high-risk zones, and Xinxiang, Anyang, and Puyang as medium-risk zones. This zoning outcome can support the layout and disaster prevention and mitigation efforts of Henan's power grid and provide a technical reference for flood disaster risk assessment and analysis in administrative regions with complex basin underlays.

关键词

洪涝灾害 / 电网 / 风险区划 / 二元logistic回归 / 河南省

Key words

flood hazards / power grid / risk zoning / binary logistic regression / Henan Province

Author summay

郭 飞(1986—), 男, 高级工程师, 学士, 主要从事输变电工程变电站设计管理研究。E-mail: [e-mail]