四川省东部地区洪水灾害风险评估

Risk assessment of extreme flood events in eastern Sichuan Proviace

摘要

加强气候变化背景下极端降雨洪灾事件风险评估理论研究，关乎流域人民群众生命财产安全和经济社会稳定发展，为解决四川省东部地区极端降雨较多，导致的洪灾事件不确定性较大、洪灾事件风险评估准确量化困难等问题，建立基于证据理论和可变模糊集相结合的洪灾风险计算方法，对该地区洪灾风险实现准确评估。采用证据理论构建洪灾事件致灾因子、孕灾环境和承灾体的风险量化体系，同时采用可变模糊集计算证据理论的基本信任分配函数，建立基于证据理论和可变模糊集相结合的极端洪灾风险评估方法，并在四川省东部地区洪灾风险分析中加以应用。结果表明：该方法可实现气候变化下极端洪灾事件风险客观、准确地量化评估，为气候变化背景下流域防洪决策制定和防洪工程安全评估提供支撑。

Abstract

Strengthening research on risk assessment theory of extreme flood events related to people's life-property safety and stable development of economic society in the river basin, under climate change. As a reslute of the large uncertainty and the risk assessment quantifying difficulty of flood events caused by exteme rainfall, a new flood events risk assessment method is established based on ET(Evidence Theory) and VFS(Variable Fuzzy Set). What's more, the flood events risk quantification system is built by evidence theory, and ET'S basic trust distribution function is aclculated by VFS. The method is applied to flood events risk assessment in eastern Sichuan Province, China, and it's shown that the method can accurately quantificat flood events risk, and provide support for decision making of watershed flood control and safety assessment of flood control project under climate change.

关键词

气候变化 / 极端 / 洪灾 / 风险评估

Key words

climate change / extreme rainfall / flood / risk assessment

Author summay

任玉峰(1986—), 男, 高级工程师, 博士, 主要从事梯级水库防洪调度研究。E-mail: [e-mail]

基金资助

中国长江电力股份有限公司科研项目(242102024)