水风光多能互补系统可靠性评估及敏感性分析

Reliability evaluation and sensitivity analysis of hydro-wind-solar multi-energy complementary system

摘要

水风光多能互补是促进新能源并网消纳的有效方式。为保证电力系统的可靠性，提出了水风光互补系统的可靠性评估及敏感性分析框架。首先，基于多变量随机模拟方法，模拟了长系列水风光数据；其次，构建了水风光中长期随机优化调度模型，采用随机动态规划求解；最后通过改进的可靠性指标及敏感性分析方法分析了水风光互补系统的可靠性及敏感性。以西北地区某梯级水风光互补系统为研究对象，结果表明：在未来不确定性条件下，水风光互补运行能够有效提升系统的可靠性，且其随着系统中风光总装机容量的增大而降低，当光伏与风电装机比例为3∶7时，互补系统可靠性最佳，相比于风、光装机比例，互补系统可靠性对风光总装机容量更敏感。

Abstract

Hydro-wind-solar multi-energy complementary is an effective way to promote the grid-connected consumption of new energy. To ensure the reliability of the power system, an reliability evaluation and sensitivity analysis framework of hydro-wind-solar complementary system was proposed. First, based on multivariate random simulation method, long series water, wind and solar data were simulated. Then, a long-term hydro-wind-solar stochastic optimization scheduling model was constructed and solved using stochastic dynamic programming Finally, the reliability and sensitivity of the hydro-wind-solar complementary system were analyzed through improved reliability indicators and sensitivity analysis method, respectively. A clean energy base located in the Upper Yellow River Basin, China, is selected as a case study.Under the uncertain conditions in the future, hydro-wind-solar complementary operation can effectively improve the reliability of the system, and it decreases with the increase of the total installed capacity of wind and solar power in the system. When the installation ratio of photovoltaic and wind power is 3∶7, the reliability of the complementary system is the best. Compared with the installation ratio of wind and solar power, the reliability of the complementary system is more sensitive to the total installed capacity of wind and solar power.

关键词

水风光多能互补 / 不确定性 / 随机优化调度 / 可靠性评估 / 敏感性分析

Key words

hydro-wind-solar multi-energy complementary / uncertainties / random optimization scheduling / reliability evaluation / sensitivity analysis

Author summay

赵 龙(1983—), 男, 高级工程师, 硕士, 主要从事新能源并网运行控制相关研究。E-mail: [e-mail]

基金资助

国网甘肃省电力公司科技项目(SGTYHT/23-JS-001)