基于多源证据融合和LEC法的施工安全危险源风险评价

Risk evaluation of construction safety hazard based on multi-source evidence fusion and LEC method

摘要

大型工程建设是一个复杂动态的施工进程，安全数据来源种类多、规模大，现有的安全风险评价方法未能充分利用安全大数据，导致评价结果缺乏客观性和准确性。为准确评估大型工程施工安全风险，提出基于D-S证据融合和LEC法的施工危险源风险评价方法。首先，利用隐患关键词和强关联规则实现施工安全隐患的危险源辨识，并给出了危险源风险估计指标及其量化方法。然后，采用D-S证据融合理论对专家的风险估计结果进行多源信息处理，获得危险源所对应的人员暴露度和事故严重度指标值。最后，基于改进的LEC法建立风险评价模型，以地下主厂房工程施工安全隐患的危险源作为案例进行了风险评价和分析。结果表明，该方法能提高隐患风险评价的准确性和客观性，为施工现场的安全隐患管理提供科学的数据支持和决策依据。

Abstract

Mega project represents a multifaceted and dynamic process, characterized by diverse and extensive safety data sources. The existing safety risk evaluation method fail to make full use of safety big data, resulting in the lack of comprehensiveness, objectivity and accuracy of the evaluation result. To accurately assess the risk of safety hazard sources in large-scale engineering construction, a risk evaluation method of construction hazard sources based on D-S evidence fusion and LEC method is proposed. Firstly, the source identification of construction safety hazards is achieved by using the keywords of safety hazards and strong association rules, and the hazard source risk estimation index and its quantification method are given. Then, the D-S evidence fusion theory is applied to process the multi-source information derived from experts' risk estimation result. This process yields corresponding values for human exposure and accident severity indices pertaining to the identified hazard sources. Finally, an improved LEC method is employed to establish a risk evaluation model. To demonstrate the effectiveness of this approach, a case study is conducted, focusing on the hazard source of construction safety hazards in an underground main powerhouse project. The result indicated that the method significantly enhances the accuracy and objectivity of hidden danger risk evaluation, providing scientific data support and a foundation for decision-making in the management of safety hazards during mega project construction.

关键词

大型工程 / 施工安全 / 危险源辨识 / 风险评价 / D-S证据融合理论 / LEC法

Key words

mega project / construction safety / hazards identification / risk evaluation / D-S evidence fusion theory / LEC method

Author summay

黄 斌(1973—), 男, 高级工程师, 总工, 硕士, 主要从事工程建设管理方面的研究。E-mail: huang_ [e-mail]

基金资助

中国长江三峡集团有限公司企业科研项目(202103551)